Nakano Ward Housing Market 2026: Small Flats, Slower Growth, Low Risk
Data updated 2026-11-11 · Source: MLIT transaction price survey, 2005 Q3–2026 Q2 · Transactions in 2025: 836
In short
- 1Affordable for its location
Nakano is just west of Shinjuku, but its condos cost about ¥1.1M per m², about 1.1 times the Tokyo average and 12th among the 23 wards.
- 2Price growth has slowed
Condo prices per m² rose about 3.8% a year over the past five years, slower than the 5.8% of the five years before.
- 3Growth from single people
Population grew 3.0% between 2020 and 2025, and households grew 6.3%.
- 4Low risk, average yield
A median condo costs about 39 years of median rent, the same as the Tokyo average.
The answers, compared
What does a home cost?
¥37.0M
median used condo · ¥1.1M/m²
6% above the Tokyo median
12 of 47 areas in Tokyo, highest first
Are prices rising?
+22.4%
over 5 years
Slower than Tokyo (+26.5%)
41 of 50 areas in Tokyo, highest first
Can local earners afford it?
7.5× income
median price ÷ average taxable income
Harder than Tokyo (6.8×)
21 of 50 areas in Tokyo, highest first
Rent or buy?
39years of rent
median price ÷ a year of median rent
In line with Tokyo (39)
27 of 50 areas in Tokyo, highest first
Are people moving in?
+3.0%
population, 2020–25
Faster than Tokyo (+1.4%)
11 of 50 areas in Tokyo, highest first
How risky is it?
45%
chance of strong shaking (6-lower+) in 30 years
Lower than Tokyo (53%)
25 of 50 areas in Tokyo, highest first
Rent in Nakano Ward
The average private rental costs ¥89k a month (2023), +3.3% since 2018. Tokyo: ¥95k
| Floor area | Typical layout | Average rent / month | Nakano WardTokyo |
|---|---|---|---|
| under 30 m² studio / 1K | studio / 1K | ¥69k vs 2018 +0.2% · Tokyo: ¥70k | |
| 30–49 m² 1LDK / 2DK | 1LDK / 2DK | ¥108k vs 2018 +16.2% · Tokyo: ¥99k | |
| 50–69 m² 2LDK / 3DK | 2LDK / 3DK | ¥132k vs 2018 +4.7% · Tokyo: ¥126k | |
| 70–99 m² 3LDK / family | 3LDK / family | ¥134k vs 2018 -1.4% · Tokyo: ¥155k | |
| 100–149 m² mostly houses | mostly houses | ¥95k vs 2018 -31.6% · Tokyo: ¥191k | |
| 150 m² + mostly houses | mostly houses | ¥118k vs 2018 -31.3% · Tokyo: ¥271k |
- Rent per m²
- ¥3,149
- median, per month · Tokyo: ¥2,800
- The median used condo (¥37.0M, 35 m²) costs about 28 years of average rent for a similar-sized home (¥108k a month).
- Excludes management fees, repair reserve, property tax and mortgage interest.
Source: Statistics Bureau of Japan, Housing and Land Survey 2023. Privately owned rentals (excluding rent-free homes), monthly rent without management fees. These averages include older homes, so they run below asking rents for newly listed units. 112,050 rented homes.
Affordable for its location
Nakano is just west of Shinjuku, but its condos cost about ¥1.1M per m², about 1.1 times the Tokyo average and 12th among the 23 wards. The median condo sold for about ¥37M, unchanged from 2024. The 20 m² 1K at about ¥23M is the most traded home.
Price growth has slowed
Condo prices per m² rose about 3.8% a year over the past five years, slower than the 5.8% of the five years before. Benchmark residential land rose about 9% in the past year, one of the slower rates in central Tokyo. Nakano is still rising, but less than wards to its east.
Growth from single people
Population grew 3.0% between 2020 and 2025, and households grew 6.3%. Movement from the rest of Japan was about even in 2025, so growth comes mainly from abroad. About 45% of condo sales are studios.
Stations
Higashi-Nakano and Nakano-Sakaue near the Shinjuku border are the priciest busy stations, at about ¥1.2–1.3M per m². Nogata in the west is about 25% cheaper. Station distance has a small effect (about 6%), as the ward is compact and dense with stations.
Low risk, average yield
A median condo costs about 39 years of median rent, the same as the Tokyo average. Nakano has none of its benchmark sites in deep flood zones and is below average for earthquake probability among the wards. No national Urgent Urban Renewal Area is in the ward.
Living in Nakano Ward: people, homes and risks
- Population 2025
- 355,333
- +3.0% since 2020
- Tokyo: +1.4%
- Net moves in 2025
- -76
- -0.21 per 1,000 residents
- Tokyo: +4.58
- Vacant homes (2023)
- 12.1%
- 0.8% empty and not for rent or sale
- Tokyo: 10.9%
- Median rent (2023)
- ¥79k
- per month, all rented homes
- Tokyo: ¥78k
- Strong earthquake risk
- 45.1%
- chance of shaking of intensity 6-lower or more within 30 years
- Tokyo: 52.8%
- Reported crime
- 6.0
- per 1,000 residents in 2025 (2,135 crimes recorded by the Tokyo police)
- Tokyo: 6.9
- Average income per taxpayer
- ¥4.9M
- taxable income in 2023
- Tokyo: ¥5.4M
- Daytime population
- 95
- people here by day per 100 residents (2020 census)
- Foreign residents
- 7.2%
- 24,632 registered residents in 2024
- Tokyo: 5.2%
- Clinics
- 9.3
- per 10,000 residents; 8 hospitals, 252 dental clinics (2020)
- Tokyo: 9.8
- Official land price 2026
- ¥764k/m²
- +8.6% in a year · +34.4% in 5 years
- Tokyo: ¥407k/m²
- Flood exposure
- 23.5%
- of 51 benchmark sites in a worst-case flood zone (0.0% 3 m or deeper)
- Tokyo: 42.5%
- Landslide exposure
- 0.0%
- of 51 benchmark sites in a landslide warning area
- Tokyo: 0.8%
Check flood, landslide and tsunami zones for a specific address on the government hazard map ↗
Sources: 2025 Census (preliminary), 2025 Internal Migration Report, 2023 Housing and Land Survey (Statistics Bureau of Japan); J-SHIS seismic hazard model (NIED, 2024); Land Price Publication (MLIT); recorded crime: Tokyo Metropolitan Police Department (Tokyo only); incomes: Ministry of Internal Affairs taxation survey via the Statistics Bureau's municipal indicators; foreign residents: Basic Resident Register; medical facilities and station passengers: MLIT National Land Numerical Information. Earthquake probability is measured at the municipal center.
Example sales in Nakano Ward
Real transactions from the last four quarters, picked near the lower (20th percentile), middle and upper (80th percentile) price points. Locations are shown at district level, as published by MLIT.
Condo
¥21.0M
¥840k/m²
- Shirasagi
- Saginomiya(Tokyo) · 9 min walk
- 1LDK · 25 m²
- Built 2019 (7 yrs) · RC
¥37.0M
¥1.5M/m²
- Chuo
- Nakano(Tokyo) · 6 min walk
- 1K · 25 m²
- Built 2014 (12 yrs) · RC
¥75.0M
¥1.1M/m²
- Saginomiya
- Shimo Igusa · 8 min walk
- 3LDK · 70 m²
- Built 2023 (3 yrs) · RC
House
¥60.0M
¥632k/m²
- Saginomiya
- Toritsu Kasei · 4 min walk
- Land 65 m² · floor 95 m²
- Built 2007 (18 yrs) · Wood
¥84.0M
¥1.1M/m²
- Chuo
- Nakano Sakaue · 3 min walk
- Land 70 m² · floor 75 m²
- Built 1968 (58 yrs) · Wood
¥200M
¥690k/m²
- Chuo
- Shin Nakano · 9 min walk
- Land 190 m² · floor 290 m²
- Built 2025 (0 yrs) · Wood
Show data table
| Year | Condo | House |
|---|---|---|
| 2005 | ¥23.5M | ¥54.0M |
| 2006 | ¥21.0M | ¥56.0M |
| 2007 | ¥21.0M | ¥62.0M |
| 2008 | ¥22.0M | ¥58.0M |
| 2009 | ¥23.0M | ¥53.5M |
| 2010 | ¥21.0M | ¥54.0M |
| 2011 | ¥21.0M | ¥52.0M |
| 2012 | ¥21.0M | ¥52.0M |
| 2013 | ¥24.0M | ¥53.0M |
| 2014 | ¥20.0M | ¥55.0M |
| 2015 | ¥26.0M | ¥57.0M |
| 2016 | ¥23.5M | ¥63.0M |
| 2017 | ¥26.0M | ¥62.0M |
| 2018 | ¥28.0M | ¥63.0M |
| 2019 | ¥28.5M | ¥60.0M |
| 2020 | ¥33.0M | ¥61.0M |
| 2021 | ¥31.0M | ¥69.0M |
| 2022 | ¥30.0M | ¥72.0M |
| 2023 | ¥33.0M | ¥77.0M |
| 2024 | ¥37.0M | ¥76.0M |
| 2025 | ¥37.0M | ¥92.0M |
| 2026 (partial) | ¥34.0M | ¥80.0M |
Show data table
| Year | Condo | House | Land |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2005 | ¥675k/m² | ¥561k/m² | ¥475k/m² |
| 2006 | ¥727k/m² | ¥565k/m² | ¥480k/m² |
| 2007 | ¥653k/m² | ¥588k/m² | ¥530k/m² |
| 2008 | ¥600k/m² | ¥560k/m² | ¥480k/m² |
| 2009 | ¥575k/m² | ¥550k/m² | ¥430k/m² |
| 2010 | ¥620k/m² | ¥556k/m² | ¥420k/m² |
| 2011 | ¥580k/m² | ¥533k/m² | ¥435k/m² |
| 2012 | ¥600k/m² | ¥538k/m² | ¥435k/m² |
| 2013 | ¥621k/m² | ¥511k/m² | ¥420k/m² |
| 2014 | ¥680k/m² | ¥536k/m² | ¥460k/m² |
| 2015 | ¥700k/m² | ¥543k/m² | ¥520k/m² |
| 2016 | ¥800k/m² | ¥622k/m² | ¥540k/m² |
| 2017 | ¥800k/m² | ¥607k/m² | ¥565k/m² |
| 2018 | ¥850k/m² | ¥635k/m² | ¥570k/m² |
| 2019 | ¥900k/m² | ¥638k/m² | ¥550k/m² |
| 2020 | ¥933k/m² | ¥647k/m² | ¥540k/m² |
| 2021 | ¥940k/m² | ¥695k/m² | ¥685k/m² |
| 2022 | ¥1.0M/m² | ¥700k/m² | ¥670k/m² |
| 2023 | ¥1.0M/m² | ¥745k/m² | ¥710k/m² |
| 2024 | ¥1.1M/m² | ¥789k/m² | ¥695k/m² |
| 2025 | ¥1.1M/m² | ¥857k/m² | ¥820k/m² |
| 2026 (partial) | ¥1.2M/m² | ¥855k/m² | ¥720k/m² |
Show data table
| Building age (years) | Condo | House |
|---|---|---|
| 0 | ¥1.5M/m² | ¥840k/m² |
| 1 | ¥1.5M/m² | ¥854k/m² |
| 2 | ¥1.4M/m² | ¥919k/m² |
| 3 | ¥1.4M/m² | ¥976k/m² |
| 4 | ¥1.2M/m² | ¥990k/m² |
| 5 | ¥1.2M/m² | ¥962k/m² |
| 6 | ¥1.3M/m² | ¥1.0M/m² |
| 7 | ¥1.2M/m² | ¥839k/m² |
| 8 | ¥1.1M/m² | ¥825k/m² |
| 9 | ¥1.1M/m² | ¥803k/m² |
| 10 | ¥1.2M/m² | ¥716k/m² |
| 11 | ¥1.1M/m² | ¥811k/m² |
| 12 | ¥1.1M/m² | ¥770k/m² |
| 13 | ¥1.1M/m² | ¥700k/m² |
| 14 | ¥1.1M/m² | ¥731k/m² |
| 15 | ¥1.0M/m² | ¥674k/m² |
| 16 | ¥1.0M/m² | – |
| 17 | ¥1.1M/m² | ¥888k/m² |
| 18 | ¥1.1M/m² | – |
| 19 | ¥1.1M/m² | ¥711k/m² |
| 20 | ¥1.1M/m² | ¥562k/m² |
| 21 | ¥1.0M/m² | ¥671k/m² |
| 22 | ¥1.0M/m² | ¥625k/m² |
| 23 | ¥1.0M/m² | ¥608k/m² |
| 24 | ¥1.0M/m² | ¥612k/m² |
| 25 | ¥1.0M/m² | ¥588k/m² |
| 26 | ¥1.0M/m² | ¥608k/m² |
| 27 | ¥950k/m² | ¥567k/m² |
| 28 | ¥985k/m² | ¥609k/m² |
| 29 | ¥964k/m² | ¥514k/m² |
| 30 | ¥867k/m² | – |
| 31 | ¥945k/m² | ¥540k/m² |
| 32 | ¥800k/m² | ¥509k/m² |
| 33 | ¥720k/m² | ¥641k/m² |
| 34 | ¥742k/m² | ¥703k/m² |
| 35 | ¥673k/m² | ¥565k/m² |
| 36 | ¥733k/m² | ¥600k/m² |
| 37 | ¥750k/m² | ¥518k/m² |
| 38 | ¥700k/m² | ¥742k/m² |
| 39 | ¥750k/m² | ¥510k/m² |
| 40 | ¥818k/m² | ¥564k/m² |
| 41 | ¥917k/m² | ¥476k/m² |
| 43 | – | ¥560k/m² |
| 44 | – | ¥591k/m² |
| 45 | – | ¥691k/m² |
| 46 | – | ¥500k/m² |
| 47 | – | ¥618k/m² |
| 48 | – | ¥575k/m² |
| 49 | ¥750k/m² | ¥422k/m² |
| 50 | ¥661k/m² | ¥586k/m² |
Each line follows buildings from one construction period over time. 1981 is when Japan's current earthquake-resistance standard (shin-taishin) took effect.
Show data table
| Year | 1971-1980 | 1981-2000 | 2001-2010 | 2011-2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2005 | – | ¥560k/m² | ¥880k/m² | – |
| 2006 | ¥471k/m² | ¥583k/m² | ¥1.0M/m² | – |
| 2007 | – | ¥620k/m² | ¥813k/m² | – |
| 2008 | ¥440k/m² | ¥565k/m² | ¥850k/m² | – |
| 2009 | ¥447k/m² | ¥555k/m² | ¥800k/m² | – |
| 2010 | – | ¥600k/m² | ¥700k/m² | – |
| 2011 | ¥410k/m² | ¥559k/m² | ¥671k/m² | – |
| 2012 | – | ¥569k/m² | ¥700k/m² | – |
| 2013 | ¥440k/m² | ¥568k/m² | ¥715k/m² | ¥920k/m² |
| 2014 | ¥439k/m² | ¥600k/m² | ¥827k/m² | – |
| 2015 | ¥530k/m² | ¥644k/m² | ¥842k/m² | ¥1.1M/m² |
| 2016 | ¥558k/m² | ¥711k/m² | ¥889k/m² | ¥1.1M/m² |
| 2017 | ¥622k/m² | ¥708k/m² | ¥900k/m² | ¥1.1M/m² |
| 2018 | ¥611k/m² | ¥723k/m² | ¥900k/m² | ¥1.1M/m² |
| 2019 | ¥631k/m² | ¥733k/m² | ¥985k/m² | ¥1.1M/m² |
| 2020 | ¥600k/m² | ¥800k/m² | ¥991k/m² | ¥1.2M/m² |
| 2021 | ¥660k/m² | ¥800k/m² | ¥1.0M/m² | ¥1.1M/m² |
| 2022 | ¥610k/m² | ¥867k/m² | ¥1.0M/m² | ¥1.1M/m² |
| 2023 | – | ¥867k/m² | ¥1.0M/m² | ¥1.2M/m² |
| 2024 | ¥695k/m² | ¥855k/m² | ¥1.1M/m² | ¥1.3M/m² |
| 2025 | ¥756k/m² | ¥964k/m² | ¥1.1M/m² | ¥1.3M/m² |
| 2026 (partial) | – | ¥880k/m² | ¥1.2M/m² | ¥1.4M/m² |
Each line follows buildings from one construction period over time. 1981 is when Japan's current earthquake-resistance standard (shin-taishin) took effect.
Show data table
| Year | 1971-1980 | 1981-2000 | 2001-2010 | 2011-2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2005 | – | ¥414k/m² | ¥611k/m² | – |
| 2006 | ¥434k/m² | ¥476k/m² | ¥625k/m² | – |
| 2007 | ¥554k/m² | ¥481k/m² | ¥651k/m² | – |
| 2008 | ¥365k/m² | ¥459k/m² | ¥611k/m² | – |
| 2009 | ¥383k/m² | ¥414k/m² | ¥600k/m² | – |
| 2010 | ¥343k/m² | ¥475k/m² | ¥600k/m² | – |
| 2011 | ¥343k/m² | ¥427k/m² | ¥541k/m² | ¥625k/m² |
| 2012 | ¥350k/m² | ¥370k/m² | ¥544k/m² | ¥588k/m² |
| 2013 | ¥330k/m² | ¥398k/m² | ¥505k/m² | ¥579k/m² |
| 2014 | ¥405k/m² | ¥465k/m² | ¥579k/m² | ¥600k/m² |
| 2015 | ¥413k/m² | ¥438k/m² | ¥550k/m² | ¥640k/m² |
| 2016 | ¥406k/m² | ¥500k/m² | ¥604k/m² | ¥692k/m² |
| 2017 | ¥410k/m² | ¥526k/m² | ¥610k/m² | ¥688k/m² |
| 2018 | ¥407k/m² | ¥526k/m² | ¥575k/m² | ¥738k/m² |
| 2019 | – | ¥459k/m² | ¥583k/m² | ¥711k/m² |
| 2020 | ¥426k/m² | ¥445k/m² | – | ¥698k/m² |
| 2021 | ¥548k/m² | ¥510k/m² | ¥692k/m² | ¥725k/m² |
| 2022 | ¥548k/m² | ¥547k/m² | ¥695k/m² | ¥789k/m² |
| 2023 | ¥562k/m² | ¥542k/m² | ¥669k/m² | ¥887k/m² |
| 2024 | ¥523k/m² | ¥604k/m² | – | ¥853k/m² |
| 2025 | ¥500k/m² | ¥707k/m² | ¥808k/m² | ¥871k/m² |
Prices near train stations in Nakano Ward
Sales from 2023–2025, grouped by nearest station.
| Station | Median used condo price | Condo price per m² | Median house price (land + building) | Walk (min) | Sales | Daily passengers (2023) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nakano(Tokyo) (中野(東京)) | ¥37.5M | ¥1.1M/m² | ¥160M | 8 | 248 | 386,657+28% vs 2019 |
| Nakano Sakaue (中野坂上) | ¥38.0M | ¥1.2M/m² | ¥96.0M | 5 | 183 | 108,819-9% vs 2019 |
| Higashi Nakano (東中野) | ¥69.0M | ¥1.3M/m² | ¥92.5M | 6 | 174 | 95,799-13% vs 2019 |
| Nogata(Tokyo) (野方) | ¥24.0M | ¥923k/m² | ¥70.0M | 7 | 172 | 22,400-12% vs 2019 |
| Shin Nakano (新中野) | ¥33.0M | ¥1.1M/m² | ¥94.5M | 4 | 170 | 32,950-10% vs 2019 |
| Araiyakushi Mae (新井薬師前) | ¥37.0M | ¥1.1M/m² | ¥78.0M | 7 | 167 | 18,903-15% vs 2019 |
| Saginomiya(Tokyo) (鷺ノ宮) | ¥35.0M | ¥1.0M/m² | ¥75.0M | 8 | 159 | 29,582-11% vs 2019 |
| Numabukuro (沼袋) | ¥29.0M | ¥1.0M/m² | ¥74.0M | 8 | 151 | 17,330-15% vs 2019 |
| Nakano Shimbashi (中野新橋) | ¥33.5M | ¥1.1M/m² | ¥150M | 5 | 140 | 19,605-6% vs 2019 |
| Nakano Fujimicho (中野富士見町) | ¥35.0M | ¥1.1M/m² | ¥170M | 6 | 89 | 18,372-9% vs 2019 |
| Koenji (高円寺) | ¥33.0M | ¥1.2M/m² | ¥66.5M | 12 | 81 | 92,138-11% vs 2019 |
| Shin Egota (新江古田) | ¥54.0M | ¥1.0M/m² | ¥74.0M | 8 | 80 | 27,685-8% vs 2019 |
| Honancho (方南町) | ¥39.0M | ¥815k/m² | ¥89.0M | 7 | 65 | 38,148-4% vs 2019 |
| Toritsu Kasei (都立家政) | ¥23.0M | ¥910k/m² | ¥63.5M | 6 | 62 | 17,185-11% vs 2019 |
| Shimo Igusa (下井草) | ¥37.0M | ¥929k/m² | ¥60.0M | 9 | 51 | 21,827-12% vs 2019 |
Used condo prices by layout in Nakano Ward
Sales from 2023–2025.
| Layout | Median used condo price | Typical size | Sales |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1K | ¥23.0M | 20 m² | 411 |
| 2LDK | ¥62.5M | 55 m² | 222 |
| 3LDK | ¥74.5M | 70 m² | 196 |
| 1LDK | ¥38.0M | 35 m² | 150 |
| 1DK | ¥34.0M | 30 m² | 109 |
| 2DK | ¥36.0M | 40 m² | 58 |
| 1R | ¥12.0M | 15 m² | 27 |
| Open floor | ¥40.0M | 40 m² | 13 |
How much does an apartment cost in Nakano Ward?
The median used condo (mansion) in Nakano Ward sold for ¥37.0M in 2025, about ¥1.1M/m², based on 443 recorded sales.
How much does a house cost in Nakano Ward?
The median house sale, including the land, was ¥92.0M in 2025 across 269 sales.
Are property prices in Nakano Ward going up?
Over the five years to 2025, condo prices per m² changed +22.4% and residential land prices changed +51.9%.
About this data
Figures are medians of real transactions reported to Japan's Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism (MLIT) through its quarterly price survey. House prices per m² divide the total price (land and building) by the floor area. Medians based on fewer than 20 sales are not shown. The latest quarters are preliminary and are revised as more survey responses arrive.
Information only, not investment advice.