Katsushika Ward Housing Market 2026: Cheap, Growing, and the Deepest Flood Risk in Tokyo
Data updated 2026-11-11 · Source: MLIT transaction price survey, 2005 Q3–2026 Q2 · Transactions in 2025: 975
In short
- 1Low prices, rising faster
Condos in Katsushika cost about ¥0.69M per m², about 0.6 times the Tokyo average and 22nd among the 23 wards.
- 2Families buy here
The most traded home is a 65 m² 3LDK at about ¥39M, and almost 40% of condo sales are family-sized.
- 3The deepest flood exposure of all the wards
Every benchmark site in Katsushika is inside the worst-case flood zone, and about 68% are in zones of 3 m or deeper, the highest share of the 23 wards.
The answers, compared
What does a home cost?
¥29.0M
median used condo · ¥692k/m²
36% below the Tokyo median
28 of 47 areas in Tokyo, highest first
Are prices rising?
+42.5%
over 5 years
Faster than Tokyo (+26.5%)
7 of 50 areas in Tokyo, highest first
Can local earners afford it?
7.3× income
median price ÷ average taxable income
Harder than Tokyo (6.8×)
25 of 50 areas in Tokyo, highest first
Rent or buy?
35years of rent
median price ÷ a year of median rent
Shorter than Tokyo (39)
36 of 50 areas in Tokyo, highest first
Are people moving in?
+3.2%
population, 2020–25
Faster than Tokyo (+1.4%)
10 of 50 areas in Tokyo, highest first
How risky is it?
77%
chance of strong shaking (6-lower+) in 30 years
Higher than Tokyo (53%)
5 of 50 areas in Tokyo, highest first
Rent in Katsushika Ward
The average private rental costs ¥74k a month (2023), +2.5% since 2018. Tokyo: ¥95k
| Floor area | Typical layout | Average rent / month | Katsushika WardTokyo |
|---|---|---|---|
| under 30 m² studio / 1K | studio / 1K | ¥61k vs 2018 +7.8% · Tokyo: ¥70k | |
| 30–49 m² 1LDK / 2DK | 1LDK / 2DK | ¥75k vs 2018 +3.5% · Tokyo: ¥99k | |
| 50–69 m² 2LDK / 3DK | 2LDK / 3DK | ¥93k vs 2018 +0.9% · Tokyo: ¥126k | |
| 70–99 m² 3LDK / family | 3LDK / family | ¥102k vs 2018 -0.3% · Tokyo: ¥155k | |
| 100–149 m² mostly houses | mostly houses | ¥70k vs 2018 -18.7% · Tokyo: ¥191k | |
| 150 m² + mostly houses | mostly houses | ¥75k vs 2018 -22.9% · Tokyo: ¥271k |
- Rent per m²
- ¥2,255
- median, per month · Tokyo: ¥2,800
- The median used condo (¥29.0M, 45 m²) costs about 32 years of average rent for a similar-sized home (¥75k a month).
- Excludes management fees, repair reserve, property tax and mortgage interest.
Source: Statistics Bureau of Japan, Housing and Land Survey 2023. Privately owned rentals (excluding rent-free homes), monthly rent without management fees. These averages include older homes, so they run below asking rents for newly listed units. 73,410 rented homes.
Low prices, rising faster
Condos in Katsushika cost about ¥0.69M per m², about 0.6 times the Tokyo average and 22nd among the 23 wards. The median condo sold for about ¥29M. Prices per m² rose about 7% a year over the past five years, faster than the five years before. Benchmark residential land rose only 5.5% in the past year, the slowest of the wards.
Growing population
Katsushika grew 3.2% between 2020 and 2025, and households grew 9%. More people moved in from the rest of Japan than left.
Families buy here
The most traded home is a 65 m² 3LDK at about ¥39M, and almost 40% of condo sales are family-sized. Kameari and Shin-Koiwa are the priciest busy stations at about ¥0.7–0.8M per m². Kanamachi, the busiest, sells at about ¥0.6M. Condos lose value fast: half the price is gone by about 25 years old.
The deepest flood exposure of all the wards
Every benchmark site in Katsushika is inside the worst-case flood zone, and about 68% are in zones of 3 m or deeper, the highest share of the 23 wards. The ward lies between the Arakawa, Nakagawa and Edogawa rivers. Earthquake probability is also high, about 77% for 6-lower in 30 years.
Yields
A median condo costs about 35 years of median rent, better than the Tokyo average.
Living in Katsushika Ward: people, homes and risks
- Population 2025
- 467,614
- +3.2% since 2020
- Tokyo: +1.4%
- Net moves in 2025
- +1,705
- +3.65 per 1,000 residents
- Tokyo: +4.58
- Vacant homes (2023)
- 11.8%
- 2.4% empty and not for rent or sale
- Tokyo: 10.9%
- Median rent (2023)
- ¥69k
- per month, all rented homes
- Tokyo: ¥78k
- Strong earthquake risk
- 77.1%
- chance of shaking of intensity 6-lower or more within 30 years
- Tokyo: 52.8%
- Reported crime
- 7.1
- per 1,000 residents in 2025 (3,309 crimes recorded by the Tokyo police)
- Tokyo: 6.9
- Average income per taxpayer
- ¥4.0M
- taxable income in 2023
- Tokyo: ¥5.4M
- Daytime population
- 83
- people here by day per 100 residents (2020 census)
- Foreign residents
- 6.3%
- 29,664 registered residents in 2024
- Tokyo: 5.2%
- Clinics
- 7.7
- per 10,000 residents; 22 hospitals, 277 dental clinics (2020)
- Tokyo: 9.8
- Official land price 2026
- ¥392k/m²
- +5.4% in a year · +20.4% in 5 years
- Tokyo: ¥407k/m²
- Flood exposure
- 100.0%
- of 63 benchmark sites in a worst-case flood zone (68.3% 3 m or deeper)
- Tokyo: 42.5%
- Landslide exposure
- 0.0%
- of 63 benchmark sites in a landslide warning area
- Tokyo: 0.8%
Check flood, landslide and tsunami zones for a specific address on the government hazard map ↗
Sources: 2025 Census (preliminary), 2025 Internal Migration Report, 2023 Housing and Land Survey (Statistics Bureau of Japan); J-SHIS seismic hazard model (NIED, 2024); Land Price Publication (MLIT); recorded crime: Tokyo Metropolitan Police Department (Tokyo only); incomes: Ministry of Internal Affairs taxation survey via the Statistics Bureau's municipal indicators; foreign residents: Basic Resident Register; medical facilities and station passengers: MLIT National Land Numerical Information. Earthquake probability is measured at the municipal center.
Example sales in Katsushika Ward
Real transactions from the last four quarters, picked near the lower (20th percentile), middle and upper (80th percentile) price points. Locations are shown at district level, as published by MLIT.
Condo
¥20.0M
¥1.0M/m²
- Kameari
- Kameari · 8 min walk
- 1K · 20 m²
- Built 2007 (19 yrs) · RC
¥31.0M
¥564k/m²
- Higashitateishi
- Keisei Tateishi · 13 min walk
- 3LDK · 55 m²
- Built 1991 (35 yrs) · RC
¥48.0M
¥800k/m²
- Horikiri
- Horikirishobuen · 3 min walk
- 3LDK · 60 m²
- Built 2015 (11 yrs) · RC
House
¥30.0M
¥429k/m²
- Takasago
- Keisei Takasago · 7 min walk
- Land 70 m² · floor 70 m²
- Built 1993 (33 yrs) · Wood
¥51.0M
¥600k/m²
- Kosuge
- Horikirishobuen · 10 min walk
- Land 65 m² · floor 85 m²
- Built 2015 (11 yrs) · Wood
¥87.0M
¥621k/m²
- Kameari
- Kameari · 5 min walk
- Land 105 m² · floor 140 m²
- Built 1977 (48 yrs) · Wood
Show data table
| Year | Condo | House |
|---|---|---|
| 2005 | ¥14.0M | ¥37.0M |
| 2006 | ¥16.0M | ¥36.0M |
| 2007 | ¥20.0M | ¥39.0M |
| 2008 | ¥19.0M | ¥38.0M |
| 2009 | ¥20.0M | ¥35.0M |
| 2010 | ¥21.0M | ¥36.0M |
| 2011 | ¥20.0M | ¥36.0M |
| 2012 | ¥20.0M | ¥35.0M |
| 2013 | ¥19.0M | ¥35.0M |
| 2014 | ¥18.0M | ¥35.0M |
| 2015 | ¥20.0M | ¥36.0M |
| 2016 | ¥23.0M | ¥36.0M |
| 2017 | ¥22.5M | ¥39.0M |
| 2018 | ¥22.5M | ¥40.0M |
| 2019 | ¥25.5M | ¥38.5M |
| 2020 | ¥24.0M | ¥40.0M |
| 2021 | ¥27.0M | ¥42.0M |
| 2022 | ¥27.0M | ¥44.0M |
| 2023 | ¥27.5M | ¥47.0M |
| 2024 | ¥26.0M | ¥47.0M |
| 2025 | ¥29.0M | ¥50.0M |
| 2026 (partial) | ¥32.5M | ¥47.0M |
Show data table
| Year | Condo | House | Land |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2005 | ¥307k/m² | ¥373k/m² | ¥290k/m² |
| 2006 | ¥317k/m² | ¥389k/m² | ¥300k/m² |
| 2007 | ¥385k/m² | ¥410k/m² | ¥310k/m² |
| 2008 | ¥369k/m² | ¥400k/m² | ¥310k/m² |
| 2009 | ¥333k/m² | ¥385k/m² | ¥270k/m² |
| 2010 | ¥375k/m² | ¥389k/m² | ¥255k/m² |
| 2011 | ¥360k/m² | ¥388k/m² | ¥240k/m² |
| 2012 | ¥354k/m² | ¥368k/m² | ¥240k/m² |
| 2013 | ¥354k/m² | ¥367k/m² | ¥260k/m² |
| 2014 | ¥352k/m² | ¥368k/m² | ¥260k/m² |
| 2015 | ¥375k/m² | ¥375k/m² | ¥260k/m² |
| 2016 | ¥436k/m² | ¥379k/m² | ¥290k/m² |
| 2017 | ¥435k/m² | ¥410k/m² | ¥300k/m² |
| 2018 | ¥457k/m² | ¥410k/m² | ¥300k/m² |
| 2019 | ¥462k/m² | ¥429k/m² | ¥310k/m² |
| 2020 | ¥486k/m² | ¥433k/m² | ¥300k/m² |
| 2021 | ¥520k/m² | ¥441k/m² | ¥320k/m² |
| 2022 | ¥540k/m² | ¥471k/m² | ¥350k/m² |
| 2023 | ¥570k/m² | ¥502k/m² | ¥325k/m² |
| 2024 | ¥631k/m² | ¥500k/m² | ¥365k/m² |
| 2025 | ¥692k/m² | ¥533k/m² | ¥430k/m² |
| 2026 (partial) | ¥760k/m² | ¥482k/m² | ¥375k/m² |
Show data table
| Building age (years) | Condo | House |
|---|---|---|
| 0 | ¥1.4M/m² | ¥543k/m² |
| 1 | ¥1.4M/m² | ¥516k/m² |
| 2 | ¥1.2M/m² | ¥528k/m² |
| 3 | ¥1.1M/m² | ¥500k/m² |
| 4 | ¥1.1M/m² | ¥600k/m² |
| 5 | ¥769k/m² | ¥543k/m² |
| 6 | ¥826k/m² | ¥513k/m² |
| 7 | ¥780k/m² | ¥515k/m² |
| 8 | ¥848k/m² | ¥452k/m² |
| 9 | ¥739k/m² | ¥420k/m² |
| 10 | ¥640k/m² | ¥413k/m² |
| 11 | ¥720k/m² | ¥378k/m² |
| 12 | ¥766k/m² | ¥471k/m² |
| 13 | ¥670k/m² | ¥425k/m² |
| 14 | ¥747k/m² | ¥373k/m² |
| 15 | ¥692k/m² | ¥450k/m² |
| 16 | ¥607k/m² | ¥373k/m² |
| 17 | ¥663k/m² | ¥433k/m² |
| 18 | ¥615k/m² | ¥461k/m² |
| 19 | ¥582k/m² | ¥389k/m² |
| 20 | ¥573k/m² | ¥353k/m² |
| 21 | ¥546k/m² | ¥376k/m² |
| 22 | ¥600k/m² | ¥390k/m² |
| 23 | ¥600k/m² | ¥412k/m² |
| 24 | ¥527k/m² | ¥329k/m² |
| 25 | ¥578k/m² | ¥343k/m² |
| 26 | ¥505k/m² | – |
| 27 | ¥500k/m² | ¥295k/m² |
| 28 | ¥500k/m² | ¥267k/m² |
| 29 | ¥550k/m² | ¥301k/m² |
| 30 | ¥496k/m² | ¥300k/m² |
| 31 | ¥473k/m² | ¥294k/m² |
| 32 | ¥455k/m² | ¥292k/m² |
| 33 | ¥413k/m² | ¥300k/m² |
| 34 | ¥444k/m² | ¥250k/m² |
| 35 | ¥429k/m² | ¥280k/m² |
| 36 | ¥421k/m² | ¥308k/m² |
| 37 | ¥443k/m² | ¥309k/m² |
| 38 | ¥400k/m² | ¥325k/m² |
| 39 | ¥455k/m² | ¥285k/m² |
| 40 | ¥447k/m² | ¥244k/m² |
| 41 | ¥392k/m² | ¥337k/m² |
| 42 | ¥440k/m² | ¥249k/m² |
| 43 | ¥418k/m² | ¥289k/m² |
| 44 | ¥378k/m² | ¥300k/m² |
| 45 | ¥335k/m² | ¥278k/m² |
| 46 | ¥415k/m² | ¥329k/m² |
| 47 | ¥314k/m² | ¥267k/m² |
| 48 | ¥357k/m² | ¥248k/m² |
| 49 | – | ¥263k/m² |
| 50 | ¥366k/m² | ¥300k/m² |
Each line follows buildings from one construction period over time. 1981 is when Japan's current earthquake-resistance standard (shin-taishin) took effect.
Show data table
| Year | 1971-1980 | 1981-2000 | 2001-2010 | 2011-2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2005 | – | ¥300k/m² | – | – |
| 2006 | ¥229k/m² | ¥311k/m² | ¥459k/m² | – |
| 2007 | – | ¥327k/m² | ¥677k/m² | – |
| 2008 | ¥257k/m² | ¥320k/m² | ¥513k/m² | – |
| 2009 | – | ¥313k/m² | ¥422k/m² | – |
| 2010 | ¥300k/m² | ¥333k/m² | ¥500k/m² | – |
| 2011 | ¥291k/m² | ¥313k/m² | ¥445k/m² | – |
| 2012 | – | ¥312k/m² | ¥457k/m² | ¥545k/m² |
| 2013 | – | ¥300k/m² | ¥436k/m² | ¥567k/m² |
| 2014 | ¥260k/m² | ¥327k/m² | ¥441k/m² | – |
| 2015 | ¥250k/m² | ¥338k/m² | ¥453k/m² | ¥592k/m² |
| 2016 | ¥324k/m² | ¥385k/m² | ¥507k/m² | ¥586k/m² |
| 2017 | ¥367k/m² | ¥400k/m² | ¥477k/m² | ¥650k/m² |
| 2018 | ¥320k/m² | ¥393k/m² | ¥567k/m² | ¥700k/m² |
| 2019 | ¥333k/m² | ¥418k/m² | ¥550k/m² | ¥631k/m² |
| 2020 | ¥362k/m² | ¥400k/m² | ¥557k/m² | ¥694k/m² |
| 2021 | ¥400k/m² | ¥438k/m² | ¥582k/m² | ¥677k/m² |
| 2022 | ¥400k/m² | ¥445k/m² | ¥636k/m² | ¥717k/m² |
| 2023 | ¥400k/m² | ¥480k/m² | ¥643k/m² | ¥793k/m² |
| 2024 | ¥333k/m² | ¥448k/m² | ¥643k/m² | ¥900k/m² |
| 2025 | ¥378k/m² | ¥511k/m² | ¥700k/m² | ¥1.0M/m² |
| 2026 (partial) | – | ¥550k/m² | ¥783k/m² | ¥886k/m² |
Each line follows buildings from one construction period over time. 1981 is when Japan's current earthquake-resistance standard (shin-taishin) took effect.
Show data table
| Year | 1971-1980 | 1981-2000 | 2001-2010 | 2011-2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2005 | – | ¥300k/m² | ¥431k/m² | – |
| 2006 | ¥235k/m² | ¥282k/m² | ¥425k/m² | – |
| 2007 | ¥287k/m² | ¥300k/m² | ¥442k/m² | – |
| 2008 | ¥267k/m² | ¥292k/m² | ¥433k/m² | – |
| 2009 | ¥236k/m² | ¥260k/m² | ¥411k/m² | – |
| 2010 | ¥220k/m² | ¥244k/m² | ¥413k/m² | – |
| 2011 | ¥229k/m² | ¥248k/m² | ¥367k/m² | ¥411k/m² |
| 2012 | ¥186k/m² | ¥231k/m² | ¥326k/m² | ¥400k/m² |
| 2013 | ¥216k/m² | ¥238k/m² | ¥301k/m² | ¥400k/m² |
| 2014 | ¥192k/m² | ¥220k/m² | ¥333k/m² | ¥411k/m² |
| 2015 | ¥200k/m² | ¥237k/m² | ¥318k/m² | ¥420k/m² |
| 2016 | ¥233k/m² | ¥250k/m² | ¥338k/m² | ¥429k/m² |
| 2017 | ¥225k/m² | ¥313k/m² | – | ¥450k/m² |
| 2018 | ¥238k/m² | ¥272k/m² | ¥330k/m² | ¥462k/m² |
| 2019 | ¥247k/m² | ¥278k/m² | ¥306k/m² | ¥460k/m² |
| 2020 | ¥250k/m² | ¥271k/m² | ¥355k/m² | ¥463k/m² |
| 2021 | ¥244k/m² | ¥296k/m² | ¥319k/m² | ¥458k/m² |
| 2022 | ¥231k/m² | ¥302k/m² | ¥373k/m² | ¥473k/m² |
| 2023 | ¥270k/m² | ¥297k/m² | ¥433k/m² | ¥500k/m² |
| 2024 | ¥322k/m² | ¥316k/m² | ¥422k/m² | ¥503k/m² |
| 2025 | ¥326k/m² | ¥333k/m² | ¥476k/m² | ¥529k/m² |
| 2026 (partial) | – | ¥248k/m² | – | – |
Prices near train stations in Katsushika Ward
Sales from 2023–2025, grouped by nearest station.
| Station | Median used condo price | Condo price per m² | Median house price (land + building) | Walk (min) | Sales | Daily passengers (2023) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kanamachi (金町) | ¥30.0M | ¥600k/m² | ¥42.0M | 12 | 439 | 95,976-7% vs 2019 |
| Shin Koiwa (新小岩) | ¥30.0M | ¥725k/m² | ¥52.5M | 10 | 316 | 141,472-8% vs 2019 |
| Ohanajaya (お花茶屋) | ¥27.0M | ¥538k/m² | ¥50.5M | 9 | 277 | 31,424-8% vs 2019 |
| Kameari (亀有) | ¥30.5M | ¥771k/m² | ¥48.0M | 8 | 226 | 77,840-9% vs 2019 |
| Keisei Tateishi (京成立石) | ¥25.0M | ¥600k/m² | ¥47.0M | 9 | 217 | 33,675-14% vs 2019 |
| Aoto (青砥) | ¥29.5M | ¥710k/m² | ¥50.0M | 10 | 189 | 46,937-8% vs 2019 |
| Horikirishobuen (堀切菖蒲園) | ¥26.0M | ¥650k/m² | ¥46.0M | 9 | 176 | 21,209-6% vs 2019 |
| Yotsugi (四ツ木) | ¥32.0M | ¥582k/m² | ¥52.0M | 9 | 146 | 17,398+2% vs 2019 |
| Keisei Takasago (京成高砂) | ¥25.0M | ¥500k/m² | ¥44.0M | 8 | 125 | 97,368-9% vs 2019 |
| Ayase (綾瀬) | ¥27.0M | ¥867k/m² | ¥52.0M | 11 | 94 | 372,622-18% vs 2019 |
| Shibamata (柴又) | ¥25.0M | ¥500k/m² | ¥50.0M | 7 | 73 | 8,453-12% vs 2019 |
| Shin Shibamata (新柴又) | ¥25.5M | ¥485k/m² | ¥49.0M | 5 | 70 | 5,070+4% vs 2019 |
| Keisei Koiwa (京成小岩) | ¥22.0M | ¥1.1M/m² | ¥45.0M | 9 | 53 | 17,629-6% vs 2019 |
| Koiwa (小岩) | ¥21.0M | ¥471k/m² | ¥52.0M | 18 | 51 | 116,612-12% vs 2019 |
Used condo prices by layout in Katsushika Ward
Sales from 2023–2025.
| Layout | Median used condo price | Typical size | Sales |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3LDK | ¥39.0M | 65 m² | 392 |
| 1K | ¥23.0M | 20 m² | 330 |
| 2LDK | ¥29.0M | 50 m² | 208 |
| 1LDK | ¥21.0M | 40 m² | 55 |
| 2DK | ¥19.0M | 45 m² | 49 |
| 4LDK | ¥52.5M | 80 m² | 38 |
| 1DK | ¥19.0M | 25 m² | 33 |
| 3DK | ¥18.0M | 50 m² | 25 |
How much does an apartment cost in Katsushika Ward?
The median used condo (mansion) in Katsushika Ward sold for ¥29.0M in 2025, about ¥692k/m², based on 407 recorded sales.
How much does a house cost in Katsushika Ward?
The median house sale, including the land, was ¥50.0M in 2025 across 415 sales.
Are property prices in Katsushika Ward going up?
Over the five years to 2025, condo prices per m² changed +42.5% and residential land prices changed +43.3%.
About this data
Figures are medians of real transactions reported to Japan's Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism (MLIT) through its quarterly price survey. House prices per m² divide the total price (land and building) by the floor area. Medians based on fewer than 20 sales are not shown. The latest quarters are preliminary and are revised as more survey responses arrive.
Information only, not investment advice.