Kumamoto Housing Market 2026: The TSMC Effect
Data updated 2026-11-11 · Source: MLIT transaction price survey, 2005 Q3–2026 Q2 · Transactions in 2025: 2,769
In short
- 1A semiconductor boom on the city's edge
Kumamoto has been transformed by TSMC's semiconductor plant in Kikuyo, which began production in 2024 with a second plant planned.
The answers, compared
What does a home cost?
¥19.0M
median used condo · ¥277k/m²
50% below the Japan median
19 of 47 prefectures, highest first
Are prices rising?
+29.5%
over 5 years
Slower than Japan (+33.4%)
12 of 47 prefectures, highest first
Can local earners afford it?
5.7× income
median price ÷ average taxable income
Easier than Japan (6.6×)
14 of 47 prefectures, highest first
Rent or buy?
34years of rent
median price ÷ a year of median rent
Shorter than Japan (38)
12 of 47 prefectures, highest first
Are people moving in?
-3.5%
population, 2020–25
Shrinking faster than Japan (-2.5%)
14 of 47 prefectures, highest first
How risky is it?
15%
chance of strong shaking (6-lower+) in 30 years
Lower than Japan (38%)
31 of 47 prefectures, highest first
Rent in Kumamoto
The average private rental costs ¥51k a month (2023), +3.8% since 2018. Japan: ¥65k
| Floor area | Typical layout | Average rent / month | KumamotoJapan |
|---|---|---|---|
| under 30 m² studio / 1K | studio / 1K | ¥40k vs 2018 +7.3% · Japan: ¥53k | |
| 30–49 m² 1LDK / 2DK | 1LDK / 2DK | ¥48k vs 2018 +2.7% · Japan: ¥64k | |
| 50–69 m² 2LDK / 3DK | 2LDK / 3DK | ¥56k vs 2018 +2.8% · Japan: ¥75k | |
| 70–99 m² 3LDK / family | 3LDK / family | ¥65k vs 2018 +10.7% · Japan: ¥88k | |
| 100–149 m² mostly houses | mostly houses | ¥58k vs 2018 +7.6% · Japan: ¥84k | |
| 150 m² + mostly houses | mostly houses | ¥70k vs 2018 +15.7% · Japan: ¥91k |
- Rent per m²
- ¥1,208
- median, per month · Japan: ¥1,598
- The median used condo (¥19.0M, 70 m²) costs about 25 years of average rent for a similar-sized home (¥65k a month).
- Excludes management fees, repair reserve, property tax and mortgage interest.
Source: Statistics Bureau of Japan, Housing and Land Survey 2023. Privately owned rentals (excluding rent-free homes), monthly rent without management fees. These averages include older homes, so they run below asking rents for newly listed units. 192,600 rented homes.
A semiconductor boom on the city's edge
Kumamoto has been transformed by TSMC's semiconductor plant in Kikuyo, which began production in 2024 with a second plant planned. On the government's fixed benchmark sites, Kikuyo's residential land rose about 47% in five years and is still rising. Kikuyo's population grew 2.8% between 2020 and 2025 and it gained residents in 2025, while the prefecture lost 3.5%. Kumamoto City's Higashi Ward, on the plant side of the city, has seen condo prices per m² rise about 27% in five years.
Prefecture-wide: steady
Across Kumamoto, residential land on the benchmark sites rose 2.7% in the past year and about 12% over five years, among the stronger results outside the big cities, and it is only 28% below its 1991 level. Condo prices have grown a steady 3% a year.
Houses
Houses lose about 63% of their per-m² value by 24 years old, then level off. A m² of house costs about 60% of a m² of condo, a relatively high ratio, reflecting demand for detached homes from incoming workers.
Risks
On the national model Kumamoto has a 15% chance of 6-lower shaking in 30 years, but the 2016 Kumamoto earthquakes showed the risk from local faults. About half of benchmark sites are in worst-case flood zones, mostly shallow; the 2020 floods devastated the Kuma River area in the south. Boom pricing near the TSMC plant depends on the expansion going ahead as planned.
Living in Kumamoto: people, homes and risks
- Population 2025
- 1,678,090
- -3.5% since 2020
- Japan: -2.5%
- Net moves in 2025
- -2,333
- -1.39 per 1,000 residents
- Vacant homes (2023)
- 14.9%
- 7.6% empty and not for rent or sale
- Japan: 13.8%
- Median rent (2023)
- ¥47k
- per month, all rented homes
- Japan: ¥57k
- Strong earthquake risk
- 14.9%
- chance of shaking of intensity 6-lower or more within 30 years
- Japan: 38.4%
- Average income per taxpayer
- ¥3.3M
- taxable income in 2023
- Japan: ¥3.9M
- Foreign residents
- 1.7%
- 28,883 registered residents in 2024
- Japan: 3.0%
- Clinics
- 8.9
- per 10,000 residents; 211 hospitals, 849 dental clinics (2020)
- Japan: 8.5
- Official land price 2026
- ¥54k/m²
- +2.7% in a year · +12.0% in 5 years
- Japan: ¥74k/m²
- Flood exposure
- 51.3%
- of 236 benchmark sites in a worst-case flood zone (3.4% 3 m or deeper)
- Japan: 42.6%
- Landslide exposure
- 0.8%
- of 236 benchmark sites in a landslide warning area
- Japan: 2.6%
Check flood, landslide and tsunami zones for a specific address on the government hazard map ↗
Sources: 2025 Census (preliminary), 2025 Internal Migration Report, 2023 Housing and Land Survey (Statistics Bureau of Japan); J-SHIS seismic hazard model (NIED, 2024); Land Price Publication (MLIT); recorded crime: Tokyo Metropolitan Police Department (Tokyo only); incomes: Ministry of Internal Affairs taxation survey via the Statistics Bureau's municipal indicators; foreign residents: Basic Resident Register; medical facilities and station passengers: MLIT National Land Numerical Information. Earthquake probability is measured at the municipal center.
Example sales in Kumamoto
Real transactions from the last four quarters, picked near the lower (20th percentile), middle and upper (80th percentile) price points. Locations are shown at district level, as published by MLIT.
Condo
¥8.9M
¥119k/m²
- Hakenomiya, Kita Ward, Kumamoto City
- Hakenomiya · 3 min walk
- 3LDK · 75 m²
- Built 1992 (34 yrs) · RC
¥21.0M
¥263k/m²
- Kengunhommachi, Higashi Ward, Kumamoto City
- Shin Suizenji
- 4LDK · 80 m²
- Built 1995 (31 yrs) · RC
¥35.0M
¥467k/m²
- Shimmachi, Chuo Ward, Kumamoto City
- Kumamoto · 18 min walk
- 3LDK · 75 m²
- Built 2021 (5 yrs) · RC
House
¥5.6M
¥45k/m²
- Takashimamachi, Yatsushiro City
- Yatsushiro
- Land 200 m² · floor 125 m²
- Built 1967 (59 yrs) · Wood
¥19.0M
¥211k/m²
- Ikeda, Kita Ward, Kumamoto City
- Ikeda(Kumamoto) · 18 min walk
- Land 110 m² · floor 90 m²
- Built 2026 (0 yrs) · Wood
¥38.0M
¥362k/m²
- Oaza Hirozaki, Mashiki Town, Kamimashiki County
- Shin Suizenji
- Land 150 m² · floor 105 m²
- Built 2026 (0 yrs)
Show data table
| Year | Condo | House |
|---|---|---|
| 2007 | ¥8.9M | ¥17.0M |
| 2008 | ¥12.0M | ¥17.0M |
| 2009 | ¥13.0M | ¥13.0M |
| 2010 | ¥11.0M | ¥17.0M |
| 2011 | ¥10.0M | ¥17.0M |
| 2012 | ¥9.8M | ¥17.0M |
| 2013 | ¥9.5M | ¥16.0M |
| 2014 | ¥13.0M | ¥16.0M |
| 2015 | ¥12.0M | ¥18.0M |
| 2016 | ¥15.0M | ¥16.0M |
| 2017 | ¥13.5M | ¥18.0M |
| 2018 | ¥15.0M | ¥19.0M |
| 2019 | ¥16.0M | ¥20.0M |
| 2020 | ¥15.5M | ¥21.0M |
| 2021 | ¥15.0M | ¥21.0M |
| 2022 | ¥18.0M | ¥19.0M |
| 2023 | ¥17.0M | ¥20.0M |
| 2024 | ¥16.0M | ¥19.0M |
| 2025 | ¥19.0M | ¥20.0M |
| 2026 (partial) | ¥21.0M | ¥20.0M |
Show data table
| Year | Condo | House | Land |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2007 | ¥142k/m² | ¥126k/m² | ¥26k/m² |
| 2008 | ¥173k/m² | ¥128k/m² | ¥25k/m² |
| 2009 | ¥173k/m² | ¥108k/m² | ¥21k/m² |
| 2010 | ¥155k/m² | ¥120k/m² | ¥21k/m² |
| 2011 | ¥153k/m² | ¥119k/m² | ¥21k/m² |
| 2012 | ¥160k/m² | ¥120k/m² | ¥23k/m² |
| 2013 | ¥149k/m² | ¥122k/m² | ¥24k/m² |
| 2014 | ¥186k/m² | ¥113k/m² | ¥24k/m² |
| 2015 | ¥188k/m² | ¥126k/m² | ¥23k/m² |
| 2016 | ¥188k/m² | ¥110k/m² | ¥24k/m² |
| 2017 | ¥187k/m² | ¥130k/m² | ¥28k/m² |
| 2018 | ¥195k/m² | ¥143k/m² | ¥27k/m² |
| 2019 | ¥218k/m² | ¥143k/m² | ¥25k/m² |
| 2020 | ¥214k/m² | ¥152k/m² | ¥29k/m² |
| 2021 | ¥214k/m² | ¥154k/m² | ¥26k/m² |
| 2022 | ¥245k/m² | ¥140k/m² | ¥26k/m² |
| 2023 | ¥235k/m² | ¥150k/m² | ¥27k/m² |
| 2024 | ¥226k/m² | ¥144k/m² | ¥28k/m² |
| 2025 | ¥277k/m² | ¥144k/m² | ¥28k/m² |
| 2026 (partial) | ¥309k/m² | ¥144k/m² | ¥30k/m² |
Show data table
| Building age (years) | Condo | House |
|---|---|---|
| 0 | ¥471k/m² | ¥300k/m² |
| 1 | ¥558k/m² | ¥280k/m² |
| 2 | ¥459k/m² | ¥322k/m² |
| 3 | ¥433k/m² | ¥319k/m² |
| 4 | ¥433k/m² | ¥283k/m² |
| 5 | ¥450k/m² | ¥256k/m² |
| 6 | ¥427k/m² | ¥261k/m² |
| 7 | ¥440k/m² | ¥241k/m² |
| 8 | ¥371k/m² | ¥257k/m² |
| 9 | ¥431k/m² | ¥260k/m² |
| 10 | ¥440k/m² | ¥205k/m² |
| 11 | ¥357k/m² | ¥209k/m² |
| 12 | ¥399k/m² | ¥219k/m² |
| 13 | ¥333k/m² | ¥178k/m² |
| 14 | ¥278k/m² | ¥168k/m² |
| 15 | ¥294k/m² | ¥180k/m² |
| 16 | ¥291k/m² | ¥207k/m² |
| 17 | ¥293k/m² | ¥172k/m² |
| 18 | ¥294k/m² | ¥178k/m² |
| 19 | – | ¥174k/m² |
| 20 | ¥220k/m² | ¥129k/m² |
| 21 | ¥220k/m² | ¥146k/m² |
| 22 | ¥262k/m² | ¥124k/m² |
| 23 | ¥237k/m² | ¥141k/m² |
| 24 | ¥253k/m² | ¥111k/m² |
| 25 | ¥225k/m² | ¥110k/m² |
| 26 | ¥163k/m² | ¥104k/m² |
| 27 | ¥185k/m² | ¥109k/m² |
| 28 | ¥214k/m² | ¥110k/m² |
| 29 | ¥160k/m² | ¥105k/m² |
| 30 | ¥146k/m² | ¥112k/m² |
| 31 | ¥140k/m² | ¥113k/m² |
| 32 | ¥137k/m² | ¥95k/m² |
| 33 | ¥134k/m² | ¥118k/m² |
| 34 | ¥153k/m² | ¥115k/m² |
| 35 | ¥162k/m² | ¥110k/m² |
| 36 | ¥175k/m² | ¥104k/m² |
| 37 | ¥144k/m² | ¥91k/m² |
| 38 | ¥169k/m² | ¥86k/m² |
| 39 | – | ¥84k/m² |
| 40 | – | ¥86k/m² |
| 41 | – | ¥77k/m² |
| 42 | – | ¥76k/m² |
| 43 | – | ¥56k/m² |
| 44 | – | ¥80k/m² |
| 45 | – | ¥76k/m² |
| 46 | – | ¥59k/m² |
| 47 | – | ¥59k/m² |
| 48 | – | ¥81k/m² |
| 49 | – | ¥63k/m² |
| 50 | – | ¥47k/m² |
Each line follows buildings from one construction period over time. 1981 is when Japan's current earthquake-resistance standard (shin-taishin) took effect.
Show data table
| Year | 1981-2000 | 2001-2010 | 2011-2020 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2007 | ¥143k/m² | – | – |
| 2008 | ¥153k/m² | ¥279k/m² | – |
| 2009 | ¥142k/m² | ¥292k/m² | – |
| 2010 | ¥130k/m² | ¥267k/m² | – |
| 2011 | ¥142k/m² | ¥267k/m² | – |
| 2012 | ¥133k/m² | ¥262k/m² | – |
| 2013 | ¥142k/m² | ¥243k/m² | – |
| 2014 | ¥146k/m² | ¥300k/m² | – |
| 2015 | ¥160k/m² | ¥262k/m² | – |
| 2016 | ¥150k/m² | ¥286k/m² | – |
| 2017 | ¥131k/m² | ¥259k/m² | ¥415k/m² |
| 2018 | ¥153k/m² | ¥292k/m² | ¥400k/m² |
| 2019 | ¥173k/m² | ¥282k/m² | ¥426k/m² |
| 2020 | ¥177k/m² | ¥271k/m² | ¥388k/m² |
| 2021 | ¥165k/m² | ¥274k/m² | ¥415k/m² |
| 2022 | ¥171k/m² | ¥280k/m² | ¥394k/m² |
| 2023 | ¥150k/m² | ¥267k/m² | ¥440k/m² |
| 2024 | ¥160k/m² | ¥313k/m² | ¥430k/m² |
| 2025 | ¥167k/m² | ¥342k/m² | ¥440k/m² |
| 2026 (partial) | ¥210k/m² | – | – |
Each line follows buildings from one construction period over time. 1981 is when Japan's current earthquake-resistance standard (shin-taishin) took effect.
Show data table
| Year | 1971-1980 | 1981-2000 | 2001-2010 | 2011-2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2007 | ¥104k/m² | ¥106k/m² | ¥226k/m² | – |
| 2008 | ¥81k/m² | ¥100k/m² | ¥238k/m² | – |
| 2009 | ¥71k/m² | ¥92k/m² | ¥218k/m² | – |
| 2010 | ¥81k/m² | ¥103k/m² | ¥242k/m² | ¥243k/m² |
| 2011 | ¥70k/m² | ¥97k/m² | ¥183k/m² | ¥248k/m² |
| 2012 | ¥74k/m² | ¥92k/m² | ¥163k/m² | ¥243k/m² |
| 2013 | ¥73k/m² | ¥93k/m² | ¥140k/m² | ¥251k/m² |
| 2014 | ¥74k/m² | ¥99k/m² | ¥164k/m² | ¥257k/m² |
| 2015 | ¥71k/m² | ¥95k/m² | ¥154k/m² | ¥250k/m² |
| 2016 | ¥69k/m² | ¥97k/m² | ¥160k/m² | ¥250k/m² |
| 2017 | ¥70k/m² | ¥100k/m² | ¥161k/m² | ¥253k/m² |
| 2018 | ¥86k/m² | ¥107k/m² | ¥159k/m² | ¥263k/m² |
| 2019 | ¥70k/m² | ¥100k/m² | ¥163k/m² | ¥270k/m² |
| 2020 | ¥73k/m² | ¥104k/m² | ¥164k/m² | ¥267k/m² |
| 2021 | ¥80k/m² | ¥103k/m² | ¥143k/m² | ¥257k/m² |
| 2022 | ¥76k/m² | ¥100k/m² | ¥162k/m² | ¥261k/m² |
| 2023 | ¥67k/m² | ¥111k/m² | ¥169k/m² | ¥275k/m² |
| 2024 | ¥54k/m² | ¥100k/m² | ¥168k/m² | ¥240k/m² |
| 2025 | ¥60k/m² | ¥107k/m² | ¥155k/m² | ¥256k/m² |
| 2026 (partial) | ¥47k/m² | ¥103k/m² | ¥156k/m² | ¥209k/m² |
Prices by area in Kumamoto
Median prices for 2025. Sorted by condo price per m² (or house price per m² where there are few condo sales).
| Area | Condo price per m² | Median used condo price | Median house price (land + building) | Residential land per m² (sales) | Condo 5-yr change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kikuyo Town, Kikuchi County | – | – | ¥37.0M | ¥21k/m² | – |
| Chuo Ward, Kumamoto City | ¥262k/m² | ¥18.0M | ¥39.5M | ¥150k/m² | +17.0% |
| Ozu Town, Kikuchi County | – | – | ¥33.0M | ¥37k/m² | – |
| Higashi Ward, Kumamoto City | ¥261k/m² | ¥17.5M | ¥31.5M | ¥79k/m² | +26.7% |
| Koshi City | – | – | ¥28.0M | ¥27k/m² | – |
| Minami Ward, Kumamoto City | – | – | ¥25.0M | ¥48k/m² | – |
| Kita Ward, Kumamoto City | – | – | ¥22.0M | ¥44k/m² | – |
| Nishi Ward, Kumamoto City | – | – | ¥23.0M | ¥66k/m² | – |
| Kikuchi City | – | – | ¥20.0M | ¥9k/m² | – |
| Arao City | – | – | ¥12.0M | ¥11k/m² | – |
| Uto City | – | – | ¥13.0M | ¥21k/m² | – |
| Tamana City | – | – | ¥9.9M | ¥12k/m² | – |
| Uki City | – | – | ¥8.3M | ¥15k/m² | – |
| Yatsushiro City | – | – | ¥10.0M | ¥18k/m² | – |
| Hitoyoshi City | – | – | ¥7.3M | ¥14k/m² | – |
| Yamaga City | – | – | ¥7.0M | ¥17k/m² | – |
| Minamata City | – | – | ¥5.6M | – | – |
| Kamiamakusa City | – | – | ¥5.0M | – | – |
| Amakusa City | – | – | ¥5.0M | ¥17k/m² | – |
| Mifune Town, Kamimashiki County | – | – | – | ¥15k/m² | – |
| Mashiki Town, Kamimashiki County | – | – | – | ¥39k/m² | – |
Prices near train stations in Kumamoto
Sales from 2023–2025, grouped by nearest station.
| Station | Median used condo price | Condo price per m² | Median house price (land + building) | Walk (min) | Sales |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shin Suizenji (新水前寺) | ¥17.5M | ¥236k/m² | ¥32.0M | 14 | 483 |
| Suizenji (水前寺) | ¥14.0M | ¥208k/m² | ¥32.5M | 16 | 365 |
| Kumamoto (熊本) | ¥21.0M | ¥303k/m² | ¥31.0M | 18 | 340 |
| Yatsushiro (八代) | – | – | ¥10.0M | 20 | 220 |
| Miyoshi(Kumamoto) (御代志) | – | – | ¥20.0M | 19 | 204 |
| Kami Kumamoto(JR/KumamotoDentetsu) (上熊本(ＪＲ・熊本電鉄)) | ¥18.0M | ¥235k/m² | ¥24.0M | 19 | 184 |
| Minami Kumamoto (南熊本) | ¥14.0M | ¥221k/m² | ¥30.0M | 14 | 183 |
| Ueki (植木) | – | – | ¥8.0M | 16 | 172 |
| Musashizuka (武蔵塚) | ¥27.0M | ¥355k/m² | ¥27.0M | 20 | 168 |
| Nishi Kumamoto (西熊本) | ¥27.5M | ¥368k/m² | ¥28.0M | 16 | 165 |
| Tokaigakuen Mae (東海学園前) | ¥14.0M | ¥231k/m² | ¥33.0M | 14 | 145 |
| Uto(Kumamoto) (宇土) | – | – | ¥20.0M | 20 | 133 |
| Higo Ozu (肥後大津) | – | – | ¥30.0M | 16 | 115 |
| Matsubase (松橋) | – | – | ¥8.6M | 16 | 103 |
| Hikari no Mori (光の森) | – | – | ¥34.0M | 16 | 98 |
Used condo prices by layout in Kumamoto
Sales from 2023–2025.
| Layout | Median used condo price | Typical size | Sales |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3LDK | ¥22.0M | 70 m² | 226 |
| 4LDK | ¥24.0M | 85 m² | 98 |
| 2LDK | ¥19.0M | 60 m² | 81 |
| 1K | ¥2.2M | 20 m² | 69 |
| 1LDK | ¥14.0M | 50 m² | 17 |
| 1DK | ¥4.5M | 25 m² | 13 |
| 2DK | ¥7.5M | 45 m² | 12 |
How much does an apartment cost in Kumamoto?
The median used condo (mansion) in Kumamoto sold for ¥19.0M in 2025, about ¥277k/m², based on 159 recorded sales.
How much does a house cost in Kumamoto?
The median house sale, including the land, was ¥20.0M in 2025 across 1362 sales.
Are property prices in Kumamoto going up?
Over the five years to 2025, condo prices per m² changed +29.5% and residential land prices changed -3.4%.
About this data
Figures are medians of real transactions reported to Japan's Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism (MLIT) through its quarterly price survey. House prices per m² divide the total price (land and building) by the floor area. Medians based on fewer than 20 sales are not shown. The latest quarters are preliminary and are revised as more survey responses arrive.
Information only, not investment advice.