Tokushima Housing Market 2026: Cheap Homes, Japan's Highest Hazard Exposure
Data updated 2026-11-11 · Source: MLIT transaction price survey, 2005 Q3–2026 Q2 · Transactions in 2025: 1,104
In short
- 1The most exposed prefecture in Japan
Tokushima tops almost every hazard measure in this analysis.
- 2Prices reflect it
Condo prices per m² have fallen over the last five years, and Tokushima City's are about 8% lower.
- 3Japan's highest vacancy
Tokushima has the highest vacancy rate in Japan (21.3%), and 12.2% of homes are abandoned.
- 4Very cheap relative to rent
A median condo costs only about 20 years of the local median rent, about half the national ratio, so rental yields look high.
The answers, compared
What does a home cost?
¥11.0M
median used condo · ¥173k/m²
69% below the Japan median
45 of 47 prefectures, highest first
Are prices rising?
-8.4%
over 5 years
Slower than Japan (+33.4%)
43 of 47 prefectures, highest first
Can local earners afford it?
3.2× income
median price ÷ average taxable income
Easier than Japan (6.6×)
46 of 47 prefectures, highest first
Rent or buy?
20years of rent
median price ÷ a year of median rent
Shorter than Japan (38)
45 of 47 prefectures, highest first
Are people moving in?
-6.1%
population, 2020–25
Shrinking faster than Japan (-2.5%)
39 of 47 prefectures, highest first
How risky is it?
75%
chance of strong shaking (6-lower+) in 30 years
Higher than Japan (38%)
1 of 47 prefectures, highest first
Rent in Tokushima
The average private rental costs ¥49k a month (2023), +2.4% since 2018. Japan: ¥65k
| Floor area | Typical layout | Average rent / month | TokushimaJapan |
|---|---|---|---|
| under 30 m² studio / 1K | studio / 1K | ¥37k vs 2018 +2.6% · Japan: ¥53k | |
| 30–49 m² 1LDK / 2DK | 1LDK / 2DK | ¥48k vs 2018 +4.3% · Japan: ¥64k | |
| 50–69 m² 2LDK / 3DK | 2LDK / 3DK | ¥55k vs 2018 +5.3% · Japan: ¥75k | |
| 70–99 m² 3LDK / family | 3LDK / family | ¥62k vs 2018 -0.2% · Japan: ¥88k | |
| 100–149 m² mostly houses | mostly houses | ¥52k vs 2018 -5.8% · Japan: ¥84k | |
| 150 m² + mostly houses | mostly houses | ¥43k vs 2018 -24.7% · Japan: ¥91k |
- Rent per m²
- ¥1,164
- median, per month · Japan: ¥1,598
- The median used condo (¥11.0M, 70 m²) costs about 15 years of average rent for a similar-sized home (¥62k a month).
- Excludes management fees, repair reserve, property tax and mortgage interest.
Source: Statistics Bureau of Japan, Housing and Land Survey 2023. Privately owned rentals (excluding rent-free homes), monthly rent without management fees. These averages include older homes, so they run below asking rents for newly listed units. 63,200 rented homes.
The most exposed prefecture in Japan
Tokushima tops almost every hazard measure in this analysis. The average resident faces a 74% chance of 6-lower shaking within 30 years, the highest in Japan, and a 49% chance of 6-upper shaking, second only to Kochi, because of the expected Nankai Trough earthquake. About 72% of benchmark sites are in tsunami inundation zones and 86% are in worst-case flood zones (26% at 3 m or deeper), both the highest shares of any prefecture. Most people live on the low Yoshino River delta and the Pacific coast.
Prices reflect it
Condo prices per m² have fallen over the last five years, and Tokushima City's are about 8% lower. In 2025, the median house sold for more than the median condo for the first time in years, as house prices rose and condo prices fell. On the government's fixed benchmark sites, residential land fell about 3% over five years.
Japan's highest vacancy
Tokushima has the highest vacancy rate in Japan (21.3%), and 12.2% of homes are abandoned. The population fell 6.1% between 2020 and 2025.
Very cheap relative to rent
A median condo costs only about 20 years of the local median rent, about half the national ratio, so rental yields look high. The trade-off is hazard exposure and a shrinking market.
Bright spots
Kamiyama has become a model for satellite offices and remote work, and the prefecture's fiber network is strong. If you buy, choose higher ground, newer construction and check tsunami evacuation routes.
Living in Tokushima: people, homes and risks
- Population 2025
- 675,489
- -6.1% since 2020
- Japan: -2.5%
- Net moves in 2025
- -2,447
- -3.62 per 1,000 residents
- Vacant homes (2023)
- 21.3%
- 12.2% empty and not for rent or sale
- Japan: 13.8%
- Median rent (2023)
- ¥45k
- per month, all rented homes
- Japan: ¥57k
- Strong earthquake risk
- 74.5%
- chance of shaking of intensity 6-lower or more within 30 years
- Japan: 38.4%
- Average income per taxpayer
- ¥3.4M
- taxable income in 2023
- Japan: ¥3.9M
- Foreign residents
- 1.3%
- 8,769 registered residents in 2024
- Japan: 3.0%
- Clinics
- 10.6
- per 10,000 residents; 107 hospitals, 432 dental clinics (2020)
- Japan: 8.5
- Official land price 2026
- ¥38k/m²
- -0.5% in a year · -2.6% in 5 years
- Japan: ¥74k/m²
- Flood exposure
- 86.3%
- of 131 benchmark sites in a worst-case flood zone (26.0% 3 m or deeper)
- Japan: 42.6%
- Tsunami exposure
- 72.5%
- of 131 benchmark sites in a tsunami inundation zone
- Japan: 7.8%
- Landslide exposure
- 1.5%
- of 131 benchmark sites in a landslide warning area
- Japan: 2.6%
Check flood, landslide and tsunami zones for a specific address on the government hazard map ↗
Sources: 2025 Census (preliminary), 2025 Internal Migration Report, 2023 Housing and Land Survey (Statistics Bureau of Japan); J-SHIS seismic hazard model (NIED, 2024); Land Price Publication (MLIT); recorded crime: Tokyo Metropolitan Police Department (Tokyo only); incomes: Ministry of Internal Affairs taxation survey via the Statistics Bureau's municipal indicators; foreign residents: Basic Resident Register; medical facilities and station passengers: MLIT National Land Numerical Information. Earthquake probability is measured at the municipal center.
Example sales in Tokushima
Real transactions from the last four quarters, picked near the lower (20th percentile), middle and upper (80th percentile) price points. Locations are shown at district level, as published by MLIT.
Condo
¥6.3M
¥105k/m²
- Tomidabashi, Tokushima City
- Niken ya · 5 min walk
- 2LDK · 60 m²
- Built 1991 (34 yrs) · SRC
¥12.0M
¥185k/m²
- Hachimancho, Tokushima City
- Bunkanomori · 20 min walk
- 3LDK · 65 m²
- Built 1995 (31 yrs) · RC
¥25.0M
¥357k/m²
- Kitamaegawacho, Tokushima City
- Tokushima · 13 min walk
- 3LDK · 70 m²
- Built 2012 (14 yrs) · RC
House
¥3.0M
¥38k/m²
- Shinhamacho, Tokushima City
- Niken ya
- Land 95 m² · floor 80 m²
- Built 1977 (49 yrs) · Wood
¥12.0M
¥100k/m²
- Chudencho, Komatsushima City
- Chuden(Tokushima) · 13 min walk
- Land 330 m² · floor 120 m²
- Built 1966 (60 yrs) · Wood
¥28.0M
¥280k/m²
- Kawauchicho, Tokushima City
- Yoshinari
- Land 155 m² · floor 100 m²
- Built 2025 (1 yrs) · Wood
Show data table
| Year | Condo | House |
|---|---|---|
| 2007 | ¥9.2M | ¥14.0M |
| 2008 | ¥8.6M | ¥13.0M |
| 2009 | ¥8.8M | ¥14.0M |
| 2010 | ¥8.0M | ¥13.0M |
| 2011 | ¥8.0M | ¥12.0M |
| 2012 | ¥8.6M | ¥14.0M |
| 2013 | ¥9.5M | ¥12.0M |
| 2014 | ¥10.5M | ¥13.0M |
| 2015 | ¥10.0M | ¥11.0M |
| 2016 | ¥8.5M | ¥12.0M |
| 2017 | ¥12.0M | ¥13.0M |
| 2018 | ¥8.7M | ¥12.0M |
| 2019 | ¥15.0M | ¥11.0M |
| 2020 | ¥14.0M | ¥12.0M |
| 2021 | ¥15.0M | ¥11.0M |
| 2022 | ¥12.0M | ¥10.0M |
| 2023 | ¥13.0M | ¥10.0M |
| 2024 | ¥13.0M | ¥11.0M |
| 2025 | ¥11.0M | ¥12.5M |
| 2026 (partial) | ¥13.0M | ¥11.0M |
Show data table
| Year | Condo | House | Land |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2007 | ¥132k/m² | ¥118k/m² | ¥46k/m² |
| 2008 | ¥135k/m² | ¥100k/m² | ¥41k/m² |
| 2009 | ¥138k/m² | ¥97k/m² | ¥39k/m² |
| 2010 | ¥120k/m² | ¥96k/m² | ¥38k/m² |
| 2011 | ¥117k/m² | ¥94k/m² | ¥36k/m² |
| 2012 | ¥141k/m² | ¥99k/m² | ¥37k/m² |
| 2013 | ¥146k/m² | ¥88k/m² | ¥33k/m² |
| 2014 | ¥157k/m² | ¥94k/m² | ¥33k/m² |
| 2015 | ¥140k/m² | ¥92k/m² | ¥30k/m² |
| 2016 | ¥128k/m² | ¥89k/m² | ¥30k/m² |
| 2017 | ¥167k/m² | ¥85k/m² | ¥30k/m² |
| 2018 | ¥148k/m² | ¥86k/m² | ¥27k/m² |
| 2019 | ¥207k/m² | ¥83k/m² | ¥27k/m² |
| 2020 | ¥189k/m² | ¥88k/m² | ¥25k/m² |
| 2021 | ¥175k/m² | ¥79k/m² | ¥30k/m² |
| 2022 | ¥183k/m² | ¥72k/m² | ¥28k/m² |
| 2023 | ¥205k/m² | ¥77k/m² | ¥30k/m² |
| 2024 | ¥186k/m² | ¥67k/m² | ¥30k/m² |
| 2025 | ¥173k/m² | ¥89k/m² | ¥32k/m² |
| 2026 (partial) | ¥174k/m² | ¥77k/m² | ¥35k/m² |
Show data table
| Building age (years) | Condo | House |
|---|---|---|
| 0 | – | ¥274k/m² |
| 1 | – | ¥222k/m² |
| 2 | – | ¥268k/m² |
| 3 | – | ¥228k/m² |
| 6 | – | ¥200k/m² |
| 7 | – | ¥178k/m² |
| 8 | – | ¥192k/m² |
| 9 | – | ¥200k/m² |
| 10 | – | ¥147k/m² |
| 11 | – | ¥133k/m² |
| 12 | – | ¥123k/m² |
| 13 | – | ¥152k/m² |
| 14 | – | ¥130k/m² |
| 15 | – | ¥131k/m² |
| 16 | ¥283k/m² | ¥136k/m² |
| 17 | – | ¥131k/m² |
| 18 | – | ¥133k/m² |
| 19 | – | ¥100k/m² |
| 20 | – | ¥102k/m² |
| 21 | – | ¥100k/m² |
| 22 | ¥214k/m² | ¥81k/m² |
| 23 | – | ¥109k/m² |
| 24 | – | ¥100k/m² |
| 25 | – | ¥87k/m² |
| 26 | – | ¥79k/m² |
| 27 | – | ¥74k/m² |
| 28 | – | ¥69k/m² |
| 29 | ¥147k/m² | ¥99k/m² |
| 30 | ¥135k/m² | ¥72k/m² |
| 31 | ¥147k/m² | ¥86k/m² |
| 32 | ¥136k/m² | ¥50k/m² |
| 33 | ¥134k/m² | ¥70k/m² |
| 34 | ¥127k/m² | ¥74k/m² |
| 35 | ¥116k/m² | ¥67k/m² |
| 36 | – | ¥61k/m² |
| 37 | – | ¥57k/m² |
| 38 | – | ¥79k/m² |
| 39 | – | ¥45k/m² |
| 40 | – | ¥56k/m² |
| 41 | – | ¥60k/m² |
| 42 | – | ¥32k/m² |
| 43 | – | ¥38k/m² |
| 44 | – | ¥42k/m² |
| 45 | – | ¥28k/m² |
| 46 | – | ¥37k/m² |
| 47 | – | ¥34k/m² |
| 48 | – | ¥44k/m² |
| 49 | – | ¥38k/m² |
| 50 | – | ¥32k/m² |
Each line follows buildings from one construction period over time. 1981 is when Japan's current earthquake-resistance standard (shin-taishin) took effect.
Show data table
| Year | 1981-2000 | 2001-2010 |
|---|---|---|
| 2007 | ¥120k/m² | – |
| 2008 | ¥114k/m² | – |
| 2009 | ¥127k/m² | – |
| 2010 | ¥100k/m² | – |
| 2011 | ¥110k/m² | – |
| 2012 | ¥124k/m² | – |
| 2013 | ¥132k/m² | – |
| 2014 | ¥133k/m² | – |
| 2015 | ¥131k/m² | – |
| 2016 | ¥120k/m² | – |
| 2017 | ¥154k/m² | – |
| 2018 | ¥125k/m² | – |
| 2019 | ¥146k/m² | – |
| 2020 | ¥133k/m² | ¥271k/m² |
| 2021 | ¥139k/m² | – |
| 2022 | ¥134k/m² | – |
| 2023 | ¥150k/m² | – |
| 2024 | ¥125k/m² | – |
| 2025 | ¥125k/m² | – |
Each line follows buildings from one construction period over time. 1981 is when Japan's current earthquake-resistance standard (shin-taishin) took effect.
Show data table
| Year | 1971-1980 | 1981-2000 | 2001-2010 | 2011-2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2007 | ¥105k/m² | ¥117k/m² | ¥191k/m² | – |
| 2008 | ¥81k/m² | ¥96k/m² | ¥200k/m² | – |
| 2009 | ¥76k/m² | ¥88k/m² | ¥200k/m² | – |
| 2010 | ¥68k/m² | ¥95k/m² | ¥205k/m² | – |
| 2011 | ¥66k/m² | ¥103k/m² | ¥166k/m² | ¥218k/m² |
| 2012 | ¥67k/m² | ¥100k/m² | ¥143k/m² | ¥219k/m² |
| 2013 | ¥65k/m² | ¥87k/m² | ¥140k/m² | ¥237k/m² |
| 2014 | ¥64k/m² | ¥99k/m² | ¥143k/m² | ¥227k/m² |
| 2015 | ¥56k/m² | ¥88k/m² | ¥138k/m² | ¥223k/m² |
| 2016 | ¥53k/m² | ¥81k/m² | ¥160k/m² | ¥235k/m² |
| 2017 | ¥60k/m² | ¥74k/m² | ¥120k/m² | ¥233k/m² |
| 2018 | ¥52k/m² | ¥85k/m² | ¥143k/m² | ¥232k/m² |
| 2019 | ¥44k/m² | ¥71k/m² | ¥104k/m² | ¥227k/m² |
| 2020 | ¥44k/m² | ¥73k/m² | ¥130k/m² | ¥227k/m² |
| 2021 | ¥41k/m² | ¥67k/m² | ¥129k/m² | ¥210k/m² |
| 2022 | ¥30k/m² | ¥67k/m² | ¥125k/m² | – |
| 2023 | ¥40k/m² | ¥74k/m² | ¥109k/m² | – |
| 2024 | ¥34k/m² | ¥59k/m² | ¥114k/m² | ¥168k/m² |
| 2025 | ¥35k/m² | ¥68k/m² | ¥114k/m² | ¥185k/m² |
| 2026 (partial) | ¥24k/m² | ¥67k/m² | – | – |
Prices by area in Tokushima
Median prices for 2025. Sorted by condo price per m² (or house price per m² where there are few condo sales).
| Area | Condo price per m² | Median used condo price | Median house price (land + building) | Residential land per m² (sales) | Condo 5-yr change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tokushima City | ¥173k/m² | ¥11.0M | ¥18.0M | ¥51k/m² | -8.4% |
| Aizumi Town, Itano County | – | – | ¥25.0M | ¥47k/m² | – |
| Anan City | – | – | ¥9.0M | ¥30k/m² | – |
| Naruto City | – | – | ¥11.0M | ¥15k/m² | – |
| Yoshinogawa City | – | – | ¥6.5M | ¥9k/m² | – |
| Komatsushima City | – | – | – | ¥19k/m² | – |
| Ishii Town, Myosai County | – | – | – | ¥23k/m² | – |
| Kitajima Town, Itano County | – | – | – | ¥42k/m² | – |
Prices near train stations in Tokushima
Sales from 2023–2025, grouped by nearest station.
| Station | Median used condo price | Condo price per m² | Median house price (land + building) | Walk (min) | Sales |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tokushima (徳島) | ¥16.0M | ¥230k/m² | ¥19.0M | 16 | 240 |
| Shozui (勝瑞) | – | – | ¥20.0M | 25 | 103 |
| Naruto(Tokushima) (鳴門) | – | – | ¥9.8M | 15 | 94 |
| Awa Tomida (阿波富田) | ¥15.0M | ¥200k/m² | ¥11.0M | 9 | 79 |
| Bunkanomori (文化の森) | ¥8.7M | ¥131k/m² | ¥14.5M | 22 | 74 |
| Sako(Tokushima) (佐古) | ¥11.0M | ¥173k/m² | ¥23.5M | 9 | 64 |
| Yoshinari (吉成) | – | – | ¥22.0M | 25 | 56 |
| Niken ya (二軒屋) | ¥8.4M | ¥198k/m² | ¥16.0M | 13 | 53 |
| Ishii(Tokushima) (石井(徳島)) | – | – | ¥6.0M | 12 | 51 |
| Kamojima (鴨島) | – | – | ¥9.3M | 9 | 48 |
| Kuramoto(Tokushima) (蔵本) | – | – | ¥21.0M | 14 | 48 |
| Akui (鮎喰) | – | – | ¥19.0M | 16 | 47 |
| Ko(Tokushima) (府中(徳島)) | – | – | ¥17.5M | 16 | 46 |
| Itano (板野) | – | – | ¥9.4M | 17 | 42 |
| Minami Komatsushima (南小松島) | – | – | ¥5.8M | 14 | 36 |
Used condo prices by layout in Tokushima
Sales from 2023–2025.
| Layout | Median used condo price | Typical size | Sales |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3LDK | ¥14.5M | 70 m² | 110 |
| 2LDK | ¥13.5M | 65 m² | 32 |
| 4LDK | ¥15.0M | 85 m² | 15 |
| 1K | ¥3.0M | 20 m² | 10 |
How much does an apartment cost in Tokushima?
The median used condo (mansion) in Tokushima sold for ¥11.0M in 2025, about ¥173k/m², based on 76 recorded sales.
How much does a house cost in Tokushima?
The median house sale, including the land, was ¥12.5M in 2025 across 474 sales.
Are property prices in Tokushima going up?
Over the five years to 2025, condo prices per m² changed -8.4% and residential land prices changed +28.0%.
About this data
Figures are medians of real transactions reported to Japan's Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism (MLIT) through its quarterly price survey. House prices per m² divide the total price (land and building) by the floor area. Medians based on fewer than 20 sales are not shown. The latest quarters are preliminary and are revised as more survey responses arrive.
Information only, not investment advice.