Arakawa Ward Housing Market 2026: Cheap Family Homes, High Natural Risk
Data updated 2026-11-11 · Source: MLIT transaction price survey, 2005 Q3–2026 Q2 · Transactions in 2025: 560
In short
- 1One of the cheapest wards
Condos in Arakawa cost about ¥0.9M per m², about 0.8 times the Tokyo average and 18th among the 23 wards.
- 2A jump in condo prices
The median condo price rose from about ¥33M in 2023 to ¥45M in 2025, up 36%.
- 3A family market
The most traded home in Arakawa is a 65 m² 3LDK at about ¥52M.
- 4Being near a station matters most here
Condos within 5 minutes of a station sell for about 53% more per m² than those 11–15 minutes away, the biggest gap of any ward.
- 5Flood and earthquake risk
Every benchmark site in Arakawa is in the worst-case flood zone, and almost two-thirds are in zones of 3 m or deeper, the second highest share of the wards.
The answers, compared
What does a home cost?
¥45.0M
median used condo · ¥923k/m²
14% below the Tokyo median
20 of 47 areas in Tokyo, highest first
Are prices rising?
+37.2%
over 5 years
Faster than Tokyo (+26.5%)
15 of 50 areas in Tokyo, highest first
Can local earners afford it?
10.1× income
median price ÷ average taxable income
Harder than Tokyo (6.8×)
3 of 50 areas in Tokyo, highest first
Rent or buy?
46years of rent
median price ÷ a year of median rent
Longer than Tokyo (39)
13 of 50 areas in Tokyo, highest first
Are people moving in?
+4.1%
population, 2020–25
Faster than Tokyo (+1.4%)
7 of 50 areas in Tokyo, highest first
How risky is it?
80%
chance of strong shaking (6-lower+) in 30 years
Higher than Tokyo (53%)
4 of 50 areas in Tokyo, highest first
Rent in Arakawa Ward
The average private rental costs ¥91k a month (2023), +4.7% since 2018. Tokyo: ¥95k
| Floor area | Typical layout | Average rent / month | Arakawa WardTokyo |
|---|---|---|---|
| under 30 m² studio / 1K | studio / 1K | ¥70k vs 2018 +1.8% · Tokyo: ¥70k | |
| 30–49 m² 1LDK / 2DK | 1LDK / 2DK | ¥93k vs 2018 +8.6% · Tokyo: ¥99k | |
| 50–69 m² 2LDK / 3DK | 2LDK / 3DK | ¥133k vs 2018 +17.7% · Tokyo: ¥126k | |
| 70–99 m² 3LDK / family | 3LDK / family | ¥127k vs 2018 +2.9% · Tokyo: ¥155k | |
| 100–149 m² mostly houses | mostly houses | ¥173k vs 2018 +76.6% · Tokyo: ¥191k | |
| 150 m² + mostly houses | mostly houses | ¥113k vs 2018 +25.5% · Tokyo: ¥271k |
- Rent per m²
- ¥2,843
- median, per month · Tokyo: ¥2,800
- The median used condo (¥45.0M, 55 m²) costs about 28 years of average rent for a similar-sized home (¥133k a month).
- Excludes management fees, repair reserve, property tax and mortgage interest.
Source: Statistics Bureau of Japan, Housing and Land Survey 2023. Privately owned rentals (excluding rent-free homes), monthly rent without management fees. These averages include older homes, so they run below asking rents for newly listed units. 41,210 rented homes.
One of the cheapest wards
Condos in Arakawa cost about ¥0.9M per m², about 0.8 times the Tokyo average and 18th among the 23 wards. It is a small, old working-class ward along the Arakawa and Sumida rivers, including Nippori, Machiya and Minami-Senju.
A jump in condo prices
The median condo price rose from about ¥33M in 2023 to ¥45M in 2025, up 36%. Per m² the rise was only about 11%, so most of the jump came from bigger and newer flats being sold, not from every home becoming much more valuable. Over five years prices per m² have risen a steady 5.7% a year.
A family market
The most traded home in Arakawa is a 65 m² 3LDK at about ¥52M. About 35% of condo sales are family-sized, among the highest shares of the wards. Population grew 4.1% between 2020 and 2025, and households grew 9%.
Being near a station matters most here
Condos within 5 minutes of a station sell for about 53% more per m² than those 11–15 minutes away, the biggest gap of any ward. Nippori, with fast access to Narita airport, is the priciest busy station at about ¥1.2M per m². Machiya and Oku are about ¥0.7M.
Flood and earthquake risk
Every benchmark site in Arakawa is in the worst-case flood zone, and almost two-thirds are in zones of 3 m or deeper, the second highest share of the wards. It has the fourth highest earthquake probability (about 80% for 6-lower in 30 years) and many dense streets of older wooden homes. A median condo costs about 46 years of median rent, so yields are thin despite the low prices.
Living in Arakawa Ward: people, homes and risks
- Population 2025
- 226,482
- +4.1% since 2020
- Tokyo: +1.4%
- Net moves in 2025
- +685
- +3.02 per 1,000 residents
- Tokyo: +4.58
- Vacant homes (2023)
- 12.9%
- 4.0% empty and not for rent or sale
- Tokyo: 10.9%
- Median rent (2023)
- ¥81k
- per month, all rented homes
- Tokyo: ¥78k
- Strong earthquake risk
- 80.4%
- chance of shaking of intensity 6-lower or more within 30 years
- Tokyo: 52.8%
- Reported crime
- 6.4
- per 1,000 residents in 2025 (1,451 crimes recorded by the Tokyo police)
- Tokyo: 6.9
- Average income per taxpayer
- ¥4.4M
- taxable income in 2023
- Tokyo: ¥5.4M
- Daytime population
- 89
- people here by day per 100 residents (2020 census)
- Foreign residents
- 10.6%
- 23,539 registered residents in 2024
- Tokyo: 5.2%
- Clinics
- 8.3
- per 10,000 residents; 12 hospitals, 132 dental clinics (2020)
- Tokyo: 9.8
- Official land price 2026
- ¥633k/m²
- +11.1% in a year · +38.7% in 5 years
- Tokyo: ¥407k/m²
- Flood exposure
- 100.0%
- of 28 benchmark sites in a worst-case flood zone (64.3% 3 m or deeper)
- Tokyo: 42.5%
- Landslide exposure
- 0.0%
- of 28 benchmark sites in a landslide warning area
- Tokyo: 0.8%
Check flood, landslide and tsunami zones for a specific address on the government hazard map ↗
Sources: 2025 Census (preliminary), 2025 Internal Migration Report, 2023 Housing and Land Survey (Statistics Bureau of Japan); J-SHIS seismic hazard model (NIED, 2024); Land Price Publication (MLIT); recorded crime: Tokyo Metropolitan Police Department (Tokyo only); incomes: Ministry of Internal Affairs taxation survey via the Statistics Bureau's municipal indicators; foreign residents: Basic Resident Register; medical facilities and station passengers: MLIT National Land Numerical Information. Earthquake probability is measured at the municipal center.
Example sales in Arakawa Ward
Real transactions from the last four quarters, picked near the lower (20th percentile), middle and upper (80th percentile) price points. Locations are shown at district level, as published by MLIT.
Condo
¥27.0M
¥1.1M/m²
- Higashinippori
- Minowa · 9 min walk
- 1K · 25 m²
- Built 2007 (19 yrs) · RC
¥48.0M
¥640k/m²
- Arakawa
- Arakawa Nichome · 12 min walk
- 3LDK · 75 m²
- Built 2001 (24 yrs) · RC
¥65.0M
¥1.2M/m²
- Arakawa
- Machiya · 5 min walk
- 2LDK · 55 m²
- Built 2021 (5 yrs) · RC
House
¥47.0M
¥723k/m²
- Higashiogu
- Akado Shogakkomae · 5 min walk
- Land 35 m² · floor 65 m²
- Built 2024 (1 yrs) · Wood
¥71.0M
¥747k/m²
- Machiya
- Machiya · 2 min walk
- Land 50 m² · floor 95 m²
- Built 2025 (0 yrs) · Wood
¥210M
¥840k/m²
- Nishiogu
- Miyanomae · 5 min walk
- Land 140 m² · floor 250 m²
- Built 2023 (3 yrs) · RC
Show data table
| Year | Condo | House |
|---|---|---|
| 2005 | ¥18.5M | ¥39.0M |
| 2006 | ¥27.0M | ¥44.0M |
| 2007 | ¥24.0M | ¥43.0M |
| 2008 | ¥27.0M | ¥50.0M |
| 2009 | ¥26.0M | ¥40.0M |
| 2010 | ¥27.0M | ¥40.0M |
| 2011 | ¥26.5M | ¥42.0M |
| 2012 | ¥24.0M | ¥39.5M |
| 2013 | ¥29.0M | ¥39.0M |
| 2014 | ¥27.0M | ¥44.0M |
| 2015 | ¥28.0M | ¥42.0M |
| 2016 | ¥28.0M | ¥45.0M |
| 2017 | ¥29.0M | ¥52.0M |
| 2018 | ¥30.0M | ¥50.0M |
| 2019 | ¥30.0M | ¥48.0M |
| 2020 | ¥32.0M | ¥47.0M |
| 2021 | ¥32.5M | ¥50.0M |
| 2022 | ¥34.0M | ¥57.0M |
| 2023 | ¥33.0M | ¥63.0M |
| 2024 | ¥37.0M | ¥60.0M |
| 2025 | ¥45.0M | ¥65.0M |
| 2026 (partial) | ¥46.0M | ¥68.0M |
Show data table
| Year | Condo | House | Land |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2005 | ¥516k/m² | ¥361k/m² | ¥310k/m² |
| 2006 | ¥476k/m² | ¥388k/m² | ¥350k/m² |
| 2007 | ¥457k/m² | ¥445k/m² | ¥410k/m² |
| 2008 | ¥541k/m² | ¥435k/m² | ¥410k/m² |
| 2009 | ¥517k/m² | ¥395k/m² | ¥300k/m² |
| 2010 | ¥533k/m² | ¥405k/m² | ¥330k/m² |
| 2011 | ¥462k/m² | ¥421k/m² | ¥360k/m² |
| 2012 | ¥425k/m² | ¥400k/m² | ¥315k/m² |
| 2013 | ¥480k/m² | ¥390k/m² | ¥340k/m² |
| 2014 | ¥493k/m² | ¥395k/m² | ¥330k/m² |
| 2015 | ¥509k/m² | ¥410k/m² | ¥380k/m² |
| 2016 | ¥600k/m² | ¥445k/m² | ¥380k/m² |
| 2017 | ¥600k/m² | ¥511k/m² | ¥470k/m² |
| 2018 | ¥629k/m² | ¥488k/m² | ¥420k/m² |
| 2019 | ¥650k/m² | ¥506k/m² | ¥450k/m² |
| 2020 | ¥673k/m² | ¥520k/m² | ¥470k/m² |
| 2021 | ¥720k/m² | ¥535k/m² | ¥500k/m² |
| 2022 | ¥817k/m² | ¥565k/m² | ¥555k/m² |
| 2023 | ¥833k/m² | ¥557k/m² | ¥555k/m² |
| 2024 | ¥821k/m² | ¥658k/m² | ¥640k/m² |
| 2025 | ¥923k/m² | ¥643k/m² | ¥640k/m² |
| 2026 (partial) | ¥1.0M/m² | ¥724k/m² | ¥700k/m² |
Show data table
| Building age (years) | Condo | House |
|---|---|---|
| 0 | ¥1.1M/m² | ¥663k/m² |
| 1 | ¥1.3M/m² | ¥674k/m² |
| 3 | ¥1.1M/m² | – |
| 4 | ¥1.1M/m² | ¥623k/m² |
| 5 | ¥1.1M/m² | – |
| 6 | ¥1.0M/m² | – |
| 7 | ¥1.1M/m² | ¥793k/m² |
| 8 | ¥960k/m² | – |
| 9 | ¥960k/m² | – |
| 10 | ¥940k/m² | – |
| 11 | ¥920k/m² | – |
| 12 | ¥900k/m² | – |
| 13 | ¥1.0M/m² | – |
| 14 | ¥880k/m² | – |
| 15 | ¥920k/m² | – |
| 16 | ¥867k/m² | – |
| 17 | ¥867k/m² | ¥554k/m² |
| 18 | ¥880k/m² | – |
| 19 | ¥818k/m² | – |
| 20 | ¥777k/m² | – |
| 21 | ¥744k/m² | – |
| 22 | ¥683k/m² | – |
| 23 | ¥723k/m² | – |
| 24 | ¥667k/m² | – |
| 25 | ¥708k/m² | – |
| 26 | ¥655k/m² | ¥453k/m² |
| 27 | ¥691k/m² | – |
| 28 | ¥686k/m² | – |
| 29 | ¥640k/m² | – |
| 30 | ¥618k/m² | – |
| 31 | ¥510k/m² | – |
| 32 | ¥646k/m² | – |
| 33 | ¥571k/m² | – |
| 34 | ¥560k/m² | – |
| 35 | ¥560k/m² | ¥387k/m² |
| 36 | ¥560k/m² | ¥307k/m² |
| 37 | ¥600k/m² | ¥494k/m² |
| 38 | ¥667k/m² | – |
| 39 | ¥523k/m² | – |
| 41 | ¥352k/m² | – |
| 42 | ¥500k/m² | – |
| 43 | ¥453k/m² | – |
| 44 | ¥494k/m² | ¥333k/m² |
| 45 | ¥531k/m² | – |
| 46 | ¥725k/m² | – |
| 47 | ¥645k/m² | – |
| 50 | – | ¥353k/m² |
Each line follows buildings from one construction period over time. 1981 is when Japan's current earthquake-resistance standard (shin-taishin) took effect.
Show data table
| Year | 1971-1980 | 1981-2000 | 2001-2010 | 2011-2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2005 | – | ¥350k/m² | ¥850k/m² | – |
| 2006 | – | ¥380k/m² | ¥589k/m² | – |
| 2007 | – | ¥400k/m² | ¥750k/m² | – |
| 2008 | – | ¥400k/m² | ¥723k/m² | – |
| 2009 | – | ¥350k/m² | ¥740k/m² | – |
| 2010 | – | ¥400k/m² | ¥727k/m² | – |
| 2011 | – | ¥375k/m² | ¥545k/m² | – |
| 2012 | – | ¥400k/m² | ¥467k/m² | – |
| 2013 | – | ¥400k/m² | ¥522k/m² | ¥650k/m² |
| 2014 | – | ¥420k/m² | ¥553k/m² | – |
| 2015 | ¥334k/m² | ¥433k/m² | ¥587k/m² | ¥800k/m² |
| 2016 | – | ¥473k/m² | ¥629k/m² | ¥1.0M/m² |
| 2017 | – | ¥500k/m² | ¥653k/m² | ¥1.0M/m² |
| 2018 | – | ¥513k/m² | ¥670k/m² | ¥845k/m² |
| 2019 | – | ¥480k/m² | ¥780k/m² | ¥768k/m² |
| 2020 | – | ¥557k/m² | ¥722k/m² | ¥908k/m² |
| 2021 | ¥475k/m² | ¥576k/m² | ¥762k/m² | ¥883k/m² |
| 2022 | – | ¥618k/m² | ¥880k/m² | ¥960k/m² |
| 2023 | – | ¥600k/m² | ¥880k/m² | ¥1.0M/m² |
| 2024 | ¥475k/m² | ¥643k/m² | ¥863k/m² | ¥1.0M/m² |
| 2025 | ¥675k/m² | ¥686k/m² | ¥960k/m² | ¥1.1M/m² |
| 2026 (partial) | – | ¥840k/m² | ¥1.0M/m² | ¥1.1M/m² |
Each line follows buildings from one construction period over time. 1981 is when Japan's current earthquake-resistance standard (shin-taishin) took effect.
Show data table
| Year | 1971-1980 | 1981-2000 | 2001-2010 | 2011-2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2005 | – | ¥280k/m² | ¥450k/m² | – |
| 2006 | ¥246k/m² | ¥288k/m² | ¥473k/m² | – |
| 2007 | – | ¥395k/m² | ¥476k/m² | – |
| 2008 | – | ¥302k/m² | ¥500k/m² | – |
| 2009 | – | ¥282k/m² | ¥447k/m² | – |
| 2010 | – | ¥309k/m² | ¥463k/m² | – |
| 2011 | – | ¥340k/m² | – | ¥463k/m² |
| 2012 | – | ¥257k/m² | – | ¥430k/m² |
| 2013 | – | ¥259k/m² | – | ¥430k/m² |
| 2014 | ¥255k/m² | ¥271k/m² | – | ¥471k/m² |
| 2015 | – | ¥330k/m² | – | ¥474k/m² |
| 2016 | – | ¥307k/m² | – | ¥494k/m² |
| 2017 | – | ¥341k/m² | – | ¥556k/m² |
| 2018 | – | ¥370k/m² | – | ¥560k/m² |
| 2019 | – | – | – | ¥560k/m² |
| 2020 | – | ¥381k/m² | – | ¥554k/m² |
| 2021 | – | ¥316k/m² | – | – |
| 2022 | – | ¥373k/m² | – | – |
| 2023 | – | ¥413k/m² | – | – |
| 2024 | – | ¥387k/m² | – | – |
| 2025 | – | ¥452k/m² | – | – |
Prices near train stations in Arakawa Ward
Sales from 2023–2025, grouped by nearest station.
| Station | Median used condo price | Condo price per m² | Median house price (land + building) | Walk (min) | Sales | Daily passengers (2023) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Machiya (町屋) | ¥34.0M | ¥700k/m² | ¥54.0M | 7 | 227 | 78,075-7% vs 2019 |
| Minami Senju (南千住) | ¥45.0M | ¥816k/m² | ¥66.5M | 8 | 156 | 76,950-2% vs 2019 |
| Minowa (三ノ輪) | ¥32.0M | ¥977k/m² | ¥81.0M | 6 | 151 | 43,935+1% vs 2019 |
| Mikawashima (三河島) | ¥37.0M | ¥878k/m² | ¥63.0M | 5 | 97 | 23,0000% vs 2019 |
| Nippori (日暮里) | ¥60.0M | ¥1.2M/m² | ¥120M | 5 | 93 | 351,334-9% vs 2019 |
| Oku(Tokyo) (尾久) | ¥32.0M | ¥646k/m² | – | 8 | 82 | 20,306+2% vs 2019 |
| Shim Mikawashima (新三河島) | ¥36.0M | ¥923k/m² | ¥130M | 4 | 80 | 5,696-6% vs 2019 |
| Akado Shogakkomae (赤土小学校前) | ¥43.5M | ¥867k/m² | ¥61.0M | 5 | 60 | 5,317+2% vs 2019 |
| Kumanomae (熊野前) | ¥31.0M | ¥720k/m² | ¥51.0M | 5 | 44 | 12,638-7% vs 2019 |
| Uguisudani (鶯谷) | ¥29.5M | ¥1.0M/m² | – | 7 | 43 | 46,468-11% vs 2019 |
| Nishi Nippori (西日暮里) | ¥51.5M | ¥1.1M/m² | ¥180M | 6 | 43 | 359,263-10% vs 2019 |
| Arakawakuyakushomae (荒川区役所前) | ¥48.0M | ¥846k/m² | ¥58.0M | 3 | 40 | 1,689+0% vs 2019 |
| Odai(Tokyo) (小台) | – | – | ¥49.0M | 4 | 24 | 3,186+0% vs 2019 |
| Arakawa Shakomae (荒川車庫前) | ¥38.0M | ¥735k/m² | – | 2 | 14 | 3,350+0% vs 2019 |
| Miyanomae (宮ノ前) | – | – | ¥48.0M | 4 | 13 | 3,101+0% vs 2019 |
Used condo prices by layout in Arakawa Ward
Sales from 2023–2025.
| Layout | Median used condo price | Typical size | Sales |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3LDK | ¥52.0M | 65 m² | 247 |
| 2LDK | ¥45.0M | 55 m² | 179 |
| 1K | ¥24.0M | 25 m² | 175 |
| 1LDK | ¥35.0M | 40 m² | 75 |
| 1DK | ¥25.0M | 30 m² | 35 |
| 2DK | ¥30.0M | 45 m² | 33 |
| 4LDK | ¥71.5M | 90 m² | 26 |
How much does an apartment cost in Arakawa Ward?
The median used condo (mansion) in Arakawa Ward sold for ¥45.0M in 2025, about ¥923k/m², based on 280 recorded sales.
How much does a house cost in Arakawa Ward?
The median house sale, including the land, was ¥65.0M in 2025 across 141 sales.
Are property prices in Arakawa Ward going up?
Over the five years to 2025, condo prices per m² changed +37.2% and residential land prices changed +36.2%.
About this data
Figures are medians of real transactions reported to Japan's Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism (MLIT) through its quarterly price survey. House prices per m² divide the total price (land and building) by the floor area. Medians based on fewer than 20 sales are not shown. The latest quarters are preliminary and are revised as more survey responses arrive.
Information only, not investment advice.