Nagano Housing Market 2026: Japan's Second-Home Capital
Data updated 2026-11-11 · Source: MLIT transaction price survey, 2005 Q3–2026 Q2 · Transactions in 2025: 5,105
In short
- 156,000 second homes
Nagano has more second homes than any other prefecture, about 56,000, concentrated in Karuizawa, Hakuba and the highland resorts.
- 2Buying a resort property
For Karuizawa or Hakuba, check management fees, winter access, and whether short-term rental is allowed.
The answers, compared
What does a home cost?
¥24.0M
median used condo · ¥341k/m²
39% below the Japan median
11 of 47 prefectures, highest first
Are prices rising?
+19.2%
over 5 years
Slower than Japan (+33.4%)
23 of 47 prefectures, highest first
Can local earners afford it?
7.0× income
median price ÷ average taxable income
Harder than Japan (6.6×)
3 of 47 prefectures, highest first
Rent or buy?
41years of rent
median price ÷ a year of median rent
Longer than Japan (38)
4 of 47 prefectures, highest first
Are people moving in?
-4.5%
population, 2020–25
Shrinking faster than Japan (-2.5%)
28 of 47 prefectures, highest first
How risky is it?
20%
chance of strong shaking (6-lower+) in 30 years
Lower than Japan (38%)
28 of 47 prefectures, highest first
Rent in Nagano
The average private rental costs ¥52k a month (2023), +4.4% since 2018. Japan: ¥65k
| Floor area | Typical layout | Average rent / month | NaganoJapan |
|---|---|---|---|
| under 30 m² studio / 1K | studio / 1K | ¥42k vs 2018 +6.9% · Japan: ¥53k | |
| 30–49 m² 1LDK / 2DK | 1LDK / 2DK | ¥51k vs 2018 +3.8% · Japan: ¥64k | |
| 50–69 m² 2LDK / 3DK | 2LDK / 3DK | ¥59k vs 2018 +2.8% · Japan: ¥75k | |
| 70–99 m² 3LDK / family | 3LDK / family | ¥65k vs 2018 +7.7% · Japan: ¥88k | |
| 100–149 m² mostly houses | mostly houses | ¥56k vs 2018 +0.9% · Japan: ¥84k | |
| 150 m² + mostly houses | mostly houses | ¥57k vs 2018 +7.3% · Japan: ¥91k |
- Rent per m²
- ¥1,269
- median, per month · Japan: ¥1,598
- The median used condo (¥24.0M, 70 m²) costs about 31 years of average rent for a similar-sized home (¥65k a month).
- Excludes management fees, repair reserve, property tax and mortgage interest.
Source: Statistics Bureau of Japan, Housing and Land Survey 2023. Privately owned rentals (excluding rent-free homes), monthly rent without management fees. These averages include older homes, so they run below asking rents for newly listed units. 168,900 rented homes.
56,000 second homes
Nagano has more second homes than any other prefecture, about 56,000, concentrated in Karuizawa, Hakuba and the highland resorts. They push Nagano's vacancy rate to about 20% and distort the price data: a median condo costs about 41 years of the local median rent, one of the highest ratios in Japan, because resort condos are priced for buyers from Tokyo and overseas, not for local renters.
Two markets
Karuizawa and Hakuba are the most expensive places in the prefecture, trading on international and Tokyo demand. The regular markets of Nagano City and Matsumoto are much quieter: their condo prices per m² rose only about 7% to 10% in five years. On the government's fixed benchmark sites, residential land across Nagano has been flat for a decade.
People
Nagano's population fell 4.5% between 2020 and 2025, but net out-migration in 2025 was small, as remote workers and retirees moving in from Tokyo partly offset the decline. Condos here hold their value relatively well, losing a quarter of their per-m² value only by about 21 years old.
Hazards
Mountain terrain brings above-average risks: 7.5% of benchmark sites are in landslide warning areas (about three times the national rate) and 16% face worst-case flooding of 3 m or more, reflecting the 2019 Chikuma River flood. The chance of 6-lower shaking within 30 years is about 20%, with higher local risk along active faults such as the Itoigawa-Shizuoka line.
Buying a resort property
For Karuizawa or Hakuba, check management fees, winter access, and whether short-term rental is allowed. Resale depends on a narrow pool of buyers.
Living in Nagano: people, homes and risks
- Population 2025
- 1,954,950
- -4.5% since 2020
- Japan: -2.5%
- Net moves in 2025
- -1,415
- -0.72 per 1,000 residents
- Vacant homes (2023)
- 20.1%
- 8.9% empty and not for rent or sale
- Japan: 13.8%
- Median rent (2023)
- ¥49k
- per month, all rented homes
- Japan: ¥57k
- Strong earthquake risk
- 19.8%
- chance of shaking of intensity 6-lower or more within 30 years
- Japan: 38.4%
- Average income per taxpayer
- ¥3.4M
- taxable income in 2023
- Japan: ¥3.9M
- Foreign residents
- 2.3%
- 45,263 registered residents in 2024
- Japan: 3.0%
- Clinics
- 8.3
- per 10,000 residents; 126 hospitals, 1,010 dental clinics (2020)
- Japan: 8.5
- Official land price 2026
- ¥30k/m²
- +1.2% in a year · +3.3% in 5 years
- Japan: ¥74k/m²
- Flood exposure
- 55.7%
- of 318 benchmark sites in a worst-case flood zone (16.4% 3 m or deeper)
- Japan: 42.6%
- Landslide exposure
- 7.5%
- of 318 benchmark sites in a landslide warning area
- Japan: 2.6%
Check flood, landslide and tsunami zones for a specific address on the government hazard map ↗
Sources: 2025 Census (preliminary), 2025 Internal Migration Report, 2023 Housing and Land Survey (Statistics Bureau of Japan); J-SHIS seismic hazard model (NIED, 2024); Land Price Publication (MLIT); recorded crime: Tokyo Metropolitan Police Department (Tokyo only); incomes: Ministry of Internal Affairs taxation survey via the Statistics Bureau's municipal indicators; foreign residents: Basic Resident Register; medical facilities and station passengers: MLIT National Land Numerical Information. Earthquake probability is measured at the municipal center.
Example sales in Nagano
Real transactions from the last four quarters, picked near the lower (20th percentile), middle and upper (80th percentile) price points. Locations are shown at district level, as published by MLIT.
Condo
¥12.0M
¥185k/m²
- Shinonoiombegawa, Nagano City
- Shinonoi · 8 min walk
- 3LDK · 65 m²
- Built 1997 (28 yrs) · RC
¥24.0M
¥282k/m²
- Yoshida, Nagano City
- Shinanoyoshida · 3 min walk
- 3LDK · 85 m²
- Built 2007 (19 yrs) · RC
¥32.0M
¥356k/m²
- Yoshida, Nagano City
- Kita Nagano · 2 min walk
- 3LDK · 90 m²
- Built 2006 (20 yrs) · SRC
House
¥5.0M
¥56k/m²
- Oaza Kambayashi, Matsumoto City
- Hirata(Nagano)
- Land 210 m² · floor 90 m²
- Built 1981 (45 yrs) · Wood
¥17.0M
¥131k/m²
- Mayumida, Nagano City
- Kirihara(Nagano) · 15 min walk
- Land 220 m² · floor 130 m²
- Built 1990 (36 yrs) · Wood
¥35.0M
¥212k/m²
- Kawanakajimamachi, Nagano City
- Kawanakajima · 16 min walk
- Land 330 m² · floor 165 m²
- Built 1997 (29 yrs) · Wood
Show data table
| Year | Condo | House |
|---|---|---|
| 2006 | – | – |
| 2007 | ¥16.5M | ¥15.0M |
| 2008 | ¥15.0M | ¥14.0M |
| 2009 | ¥12.0M | ¥13.0M |
| 2010 | ¥19.0M | ¥14.0M |
| 2011 | ¥16.0M | ¥14.0M |
| 2012 | ¥17.0M | ¥13.0M |
| 2013 | ¥17.0M | ¥14.0M |
| 2014 | ¥17.5M | ¥14.0M |
| 2015 | ¥19.0M | ¥14.0M |
| 2016 | ¥18.0M | ¥14.0M |
| 2017 | ¥16.0M | ¥14.0M |
| 2018 | ¥18.0M | ¥15.0M |
| 2019 | ¥20.0M | ¥15.0M |
| 2020 | ¥21.0M | ¥15.0M |
| 2021 | ¥20.0M | ¥15.0M |
| 2022 | ¥23.0M | ¥15.0M |
| 2023 | ¥21.5M | ¥14.0M |
| 2024 | ¥24.5M | ¥15.0M |
| 2025 | ¥24.0M | ¥16.0M |
| 2026 (partial) | ¥23.0M | ¥16.0M |
Show data table
| Year | Condo | House | Land |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2006 | – | – | ¥17k/m² |
| 2007 | ¥252k/m² | ¥120k/m² | ¥23k/m² |
| 2008 | ¥200k/m² | ¥105k/m² | ¥24k/m² |
| 2009 | ¥200k/m² | ¥100k/m² | ¥22k/m² |
| 2010 | ¥253k/m² | ¥104k/m² | ¥22k/m² |
| 2011 | ¥250k/m² | ¥106k/m² | ¥23k/m² |
| 2012 | ¥243k/m² | ¥100k/m² | ¥21k/m² |
| 2013 | ¥243k/m² | ¥100k/m² | ¥21k/m² |
| 2014 | ¥241k/m² | ¥98k/m² | ¥20k/m² |
| 2015 | ¥263k/m² | ¥100k/m² | ¥20k/m² |
| 2016 | ¥266k/m² | ¥103k/m² | ¥18k/m² |
| 2017 | ¥229k/m² | ¥103k/m² | ¥20k/m² |
| 2018 | ¥260k/m² | ¥108k/m² | ¥17k/m² |
| 2019 | ¥277k/m² | ¥105k/m² | ¥18k/m² |
| 2020 | ¥286k/m² | ¥113k/m² | ¥17k/m² |
| 2021 | ¥271k/m² | ¥113k/m² | ¥16k/m² |
| 2022 | ¥329k/m² | ¥112k/m² | ¥18k/m² |
| 2023 | ¥311k/m² | ¥103k/m² | ¥17k/m² |
| 2024 | ¥351k/m² | ¥118k/m² | ¥19k/m² |
| 2025 | ¥341k/m² | ¥122k/m² | ¥18k/m² |
| 2026 (partial) | ¥323k/m² | ¥113k/m² | ¥20k/m² |
Show data table
| Building age (years) | Condo | House |
|---|---|---|
| 0 | – | ¥315k/m² |
| 1 | – | ¥313k/m² |
| 2 | – | ¥333k/m² |
| 3 | – | ¥351k/m² |
| 4 | ¥460k/m² | ¥317k/m² |
| 5 | – | ¥278k/m² |
| 6 | – | ¥290k/m² |
| 7 | – | ¥247k/m² |
| 8 | ¥457k/m² | ¥240k/m² |
| 9 | – | ¥209k/m² |
| 10 | – | ¥229k/m² |
| 11 | – | ¥220k/m² |
| 12 | ¥407k/m² | ¥211k/m² |
| 13 | ¥389k/m² | ¥230k/m² |
| 14 | ¥383k/m² | ¥192k/m² |
| 15 | ¥357k/m² | ¥186k/m² |
| 16 | ¥333k/m² | ¥174k/m² |
| 17 | ¥360k/m² | ¥168k/m² |
| 18 | ¥394k/m² | ¥155k/m² |
| 19 | ¥359k/m² | ¥167k/m² |
| 20 | – | ¥152k/m² |
| 21 | ¥339k/m² | ¥137k/m² |
| 22 | ¥317k/m² | ¥119k/m² |
| 23 | ¥300k/m² | ¥120k/m² |
| 24 | – | ¥115k/m² |
| 25 | ¥308k/m² | ¥110k/m² |
| 26 | ¥262k/m² | ¥98k/m² |
| 27 | ¥238k/m² | ¥100k/m² |
| 28 | ¥290k/m² | ¥97k/m² |
| 29 | – | ¥89k/m² |
| 30 | ¥213k/m² | ¥96k/m² |
| 31 | ¥136k/m² | ¥89k/m² |
| 32 | ¥129k/m² | ¥86k/m² |
| 33 | ¥200k/m² | ¥89k/m² |
| 34 | ¥222k/m² | ¥77k/m² |
| 35 | – | ¥80k/m² |
| 36 | – | ¥81k/m² |
| 37 | – | ¥79k/m² |
| 38 | – | ¥78k/m² |
| 39 | – | ¥69k/m² |
| 40 | – | ¥68k/m² |
| 41 | – | ¥64k/m² |
| 42 | – | ¥69k/m² |
| 43 | – | ¥52k/m² |
| 44 | – | ¥57k/m² |
| 45 | – | ¥62k/m² |
| 46 | – | ¥50k/m² |
| 47 | – | ¥44k/m² |
| 48 | – | ¥42k/m² |
| 49 | – | ¥46k/m² |
| 50 | – | ¥43k/m² |
Each line follows buildings from one construction period over time. 1981 is when Japan's current earthquake-resistance standard (shin-taishin) took effect.
Show data table
| Year | 1981-2000 | 2001-2010 |
|---|---|---|
| 2007 | ¥200k/m² | – |
| 2008 | ¥182k/m² | ¥306k/m² |
| 2009 | ¥143k/m² | ¥286k/m² |
| 2010 | ¥175k/m² | ¥370k/m² |
| 2011 | ¥157k/m² | ¥306k/m² |
| 2012 | ¥146k/m² | ¥269k/m² |
| 2013 | ¥183k/m² | ¥286k/m² |
| 2014 | ¥169k/m² | ¥289k/m² |
| 2015 | ¥179k/m² | ¥300k/m² |
| 2016 | ¥173k/m² | ¥300k/m² |
| 2017 | ¥147k/m² | ¥317k/m² |
| 2018 | ¥170k/m² | ¥333k/m² |
| 2019 | ¥176k/m² | ¥341k/m² |
| 2020 | ¥152k/m² | ¥325k/m² |
| 2021 | ¥183k/m² | ¥357k/m² |
| 2022 | ¥215k/m² | ¥340k/m² |
| 2023 | ¥240k/m² | ¥350k/m² |
| 2024 | ¥224k/m² | ¥360k/m² |
| 2025 | ¥262k/m² | ¥350k/m² |
Each line follows buildings from one construction period over time. 1981 is when Japan's current earthquake-resistance standard (shin-taishin) took effect.
Show data table
| Year | 1971-1980 | 1981-2000 | 2001-2010 | 2011-2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2007 | ¥88k/m² | ¥111k/m² | ¥255k/m² | – |
| 2008 | ¥61k/m² | ¥96k/m² | ¥245k/m² | – |
| 2009 | ¥67k/m² | ¥90k/m² | ¥233k/m² | – |
| 2010 | ¥70k/m² | ¥99k/m² | ¥237k/m² | ¥257k/m² |
| 2011 | ¥62k/m² | ¥96k/m² | ¥200k/m² | ¥252k/m² |
| 2012 | ¥63k/m² | ¥96k/m² | ¥180k/m² | ¥263k/m² |
| 2013 | ¥60k/m² | ¥90k/m² | ¥169k/m² | ¥258k/m² |
| 2014 | ¥59k/m² | ¥90k/m² | ¥162k/m² | ¥278k/m² |
| 2015 | ¥63k/m² | ¥93k/m² | ¥153k/m² | ¥271k/m² |
| 2016 | ¥63k/m² | ¥87k/m² | ¥150k/m² | ¥267k/m² |
| 2017 | ¥59k/m² | ¥89k/m² | ¥150k/m² | ¥261k/m² |
| 2018 | ¥54k/m² | ¥84k/m² | ¥152k/m² | ¥271k/m² |
| 2019 | ¥51k/m² | ¥87k/m² | ¥170k/m² | ¥274k/m² |
| 2020 | ¥54k/m² | ¥88k/m² | ¥155k/m² | ¥270k/m² |
| 2021 | ¥46k/m² | ¥85k/m² | ¥168k/m² | ¥269k/m² |
| 2022 | ¥44k/m² | ¥85k/m² | ¥150k/m² | ¥244k/m² |
| 2023 | ¥47k/m² | ¥90k/m² | ¥152k/m² | ¥270k/m² |
| 2024 | ¥52k/m² | ¥92k/m² | ¥157k/m² | ¥257k/m² |
| 2025 | ¥50k/m² | ¥93k/m² | ¥162k/m² | ¥253k/m² |
| 2026 (partial) | ¥45k/m² | ¥91k/m² | ¥181k/m² | ¥228k/m² |
Prices by area in Nagano
Median prices for 2025. Sorted by condo price per m² (or house price per m² where there are few condo sales).
| Area | Condo price per m² | Median used condo price | Median house price (land + building) | Residential land per m² (sales) | Condo 5-yr change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Karuizawa Town, Kitasaku County | – | – | ¥46.0M | ¥37k/m² | – |
| Matsumoto City | ¥354k/m² | ¥27.0M | ¥25.5M | ¥51k/m² | +9.7% |
| Nagano City | ¥314k/m² | ¥22.0M | ¥26.0M | ¥60k/m² | +6.9% |
| Hakuba Village, Kitaazumi County | – | – | ¥39.5M | ¥22k/m² | – |
| Shiojiri City | – | – | ¥23.0M | ¥36k/m² | – |
| Azumino City | – | – | ¥19.0M | ¥26k/m² | – |
| Chikuma City | – | – | ¥20.0M | ¥20k/m² | – |
| Saku City | – | – | ¥15.0M | ¥17k/m² | – |
| Shimosuwa Town, Suwa County | – | – | ¥23.0M | ¥35k/m² | – |
| Miyota Town, Kitasaku County | – | – | ¥11.0M | ¥21k/m² | – |
| Komoro City | – | – | ¥13.0M | ¥9k/m² | – |
| Suzaka City | – | – | ¥20.0M | ¥40k/m² | – |
| Chino City | – | – | ¥13.0M | ¥10k/m² | – |
| Tomi City | – | – | ¥9.3M | ¥4k/m² | – |
| Suwa City | – | – | ¥13.0M | ¥33k/m² | – |
| Ueda City | – | – | ¥11.0M | ¥20k/m² | – |
| Minowa Town, Kamiina County | – | – | ¥15.5M | ¥2k/m² | – |
| Okaya City | – | – | ¥14.5M | ¥36k/m² | – |
| Ina City | – | – | ¥9.0M | ¥9k/m² | – |
| Komagane City | – | – | ¥8.2M | ¥8k/m² | – |
| Omachi City | – | – | ¥6.6M | ¥5k/m² | – |
| Iida City | – | – | ¥9.1M | ¥14k/m² | – |
| Fujimi Town, Suwa County | – | – | ¥11.0M | ¥4k/m² | – |
| Nakano City | – | – | ¥5.3M | ¥38k/m² | – |
| Iiyama City | – | – | – | ¥5k/m² | – |
| Hara Village, Suwa County | – | – | – | ¥6k/m² | – |
| Tatsuno Town, Kamiina County | – | – | – | ¥2k/m² | – |
| Minamiminowa Village, Kamiina County | – | – | – | ¥3k/m² | – |
| Matsukawa Village, Kitaazumi County | – | – | – | ¥3k/m² | – |
| Shinano Town, Kamiminochi County | – | – | – | ¥3k/m² | – |
Prices near train stations in Nagano
Sales from 2023–2025, grouped by nearest station.
| Station | Median used condo price | Condo price per m² | Median house price (land + building) | Walk (min) | Sales |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nagano(JR/Shinano) (長野(ＪＲ・しなの)) | ¥22.5M | ¥338k/m² | ¥24.0M | 18 | 306 |
| Matsumoto (松本) | ¥30.0M | ¥388k/m² | ¥28.0M | 15 | 257 |
| Chino (茅野) | – | – | ¥13.0M | 19 | 221 |
| Naka Karuizawa (中軽井沢) | – | – | ¥43.0M | 16 | 206 |
| Ueda(Nagano) (上田) | ¥24.0M | ¥343k/m² | ¥16.0M | 16 | 186 |
| Karuizawa (軽井沢) | – | – | ¥45.0M | 20 | 146 |
| Kami Suwa (上諏訪) | – | – | ¥10.0M | 16 | 121 |
| Inashi (伊那市) | – | – | ¥11.0M | 16 | 108 |
| Shiojiri (塩尻) | – | – | ¥24.0M | 13 | 107 |
| Shinonoi (篠ノ井) | – | – | ¥22.0M | 15 | 101 |
| Ooya(Nagano) (大屋) | – | – | ¥6.3M | 19 | 99 |
| Shinano Oiwake (信濃追分) | – | – | ¥46.0M | 21 | 95 |
| Kita Matsumoto (北松本) | ¥31.0M | ¥413k/m² | ¥20.0M | 24 | 94 |
| Minami Matsumoto (南松本) | ¥19.0M | ¥268k/m² | ¥26.5M | 18 | 92 |
| Miyota (御代田) | – | – | ¥15.0M | 19 | 88 |
Used condo prices by layout in Nagano
Sales from 2023–2025.
| Layout | Median used condo price | Typical size | Sales |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3LDK | ¥25.0M | 70 m² | 161 |
| 2LDK | ¥23.0M | 65 m² | 51 |
| 4LDK | ¥28.0M | 80 m² | 23 |
| 2DK | ¥8.5M | 45 m² | 15 |
| 1K | ¥2.6M | 20 m² | 10 |
How much does an apartment cost in Nagano?
The median used condo (mansion) in Nagano sold for ¥24.0M in 2025, about ¥341k/m², based on 98 recorded sales.
How much does a house cost in Nagano?
The median house sale, including the land, was ¥16.0M in 2025 across 2136 sales.
Are property prices in Nagano going up?
Over the five years to 2025, condo prices per m² changed +19.2% and residential land prices changed +5.9%.
About this data
Figures are medians of real transactions reported to Japan's Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism (MLIT) through its quarterly price survey. House prices per m² divide the total price (land and building) by the floor area. Medians based on fewer than 20 sales are not shown. The latest quarters are preliminary and are revised as more survey responses arrive.
Information only, not investment advice.