Photo: Matsumoto Castle, Matsumoto, Nagano · Nakaharu Line / Unsplash

Shinano Town, Kamiminochi County Housing Market Report 2026

Data updated 2026-11-11 · Source: MLIT transaction price survey, 2005 Q3–2026 Q2 · Transactions in 2025: 39

In short

1
A shrinking population
The population fell 10.9% between 2020 and 2025 (−4.5% for the wider area).
2
Lower earthquake risk
The government's seismic model gives a 8% chance of shaking of intensity 6-lower or stronger in the next 30 years (20% for the wider area).
3
Local incomes are below average
Taxpayers here reported an average taxable income of ¥3.0m in 2023 (¥3.4m for the wider area).

The answers, compared

Are people moving in?

-10.9%

population, 2020–25

Shrinking faster than Nagano (-4.5%)

30 of 30 areas in Nagano, highest first

How risky is it?

chance of strong shaking (6-lower+) in 30 years

Lower than Nagano (20%)

24 of 30 areas in Nagano, highest first

Residential land per m² (sales): ¥3k/m²
Transactions in 2025: 39

What the data says

A shrinking population

The population fell 10.9% between 2020 and 2025 (−4.5% for the wider area). More people moved out than in during 2025 (about 19.1 per 1,000 residents), which weakens long-term housing demand.

Lower earthquake risk

The government's seismic model gives a 8% chance of shaking of intensity 6-lower or stronger in the next 30 years (20% for the wider area). This is low by Japanese standards, although no part of Japan is free of earthquake risk.

Local incomes are below average

Taxpayers here reported an average taxable income of ¥3.0m in 2023 (¥3.4m for the wider area). That is +22% since 2014. Averages are pulled up by a few very high earners, so a typical household earns less than this.

Living in Shinano Town, Kamiminochi County: people, homes and risks

Population 2025: 6,898; -10.9% since 2020; Nagano: -4.5%
Net moves in 2025: -132; -19.14 per 1,000 residents; Nagano: -0.72
Strong earthquake risk: 8.0%; chance of shaking of intensity 6-lower or more within 30 years; Nagano: 19.8%
Average income per taxpayer: ¥3.0M; taxable income in 2023; Nagano: ¥3.4M
Daytime population: 93; people here by day per 100 residents (2020 census)
Foreign residents: 2.5%; 187 registered residents in 2024; Nagano: 2.3%
Clinics: 2.9; per 10,000 residents; 1 hospitals, 3 dental clinics (2020); Nagano: 8.3
Official land price 2026: ¥8k/m²; -0.9% in a year · – in 5 years; Nagano: ¥30k/m²
Flood exposure: 0.0%; of 3 benchmark sites in a worst-case flood zone (0.0% 3 m or deeper); Nagano: 55.7%
Landslide exposure: 0.0%; of 3 benchmark sites in a landslide warning area; Nagano: 7.5%

Check flood, landslide and tsunami zones for a specific address on the government hazard map ↗

Sources: 2025 Census (preliminary), 2025 Internal Migration Report, 2023 Housing and Land Survey (Statistics Bureau of Japan); J-SHIS seismic hazard model (NIED, 2024); Land Price Publication (MLIT); recorded crime: Tokyo Metropolitan Police Department (Tokyo only); incomes: Ministry of Internal Affairs taxation survey via the Statistics Bureau's municipal indicators; foreign residents: Basic Resident Register; medical facilities and station passengers: MLIT National Land Numerical Information. Earthquake probability is measured at the municipal center.

Example sales in Shinano Town, Kamiminochi County

Real transactions from the last four quarters, picked near the lower (20th percentile), middle and upper (80th percentile) price points. Locations are shown at district level, as published by MLIT.

House

Lower-priced2025 Q4

¥2.5M

¥56k/m²

Oaza Oi
Kurohime
Land 1800 m² · floor 45 m²
Built 1962 (63 yrs) · Wood

Typical2025 Q4

¥3.0M

¥33k/m²

Oaza Nojiri
Kurohime
Land 450 m² · floor 90 m²
Built 1979 (46 yrs) · Wood

Higher-priced2026 Q2

¥12.0M

¥126k/m²

Oaza Nojiri
Kurohime
Land 460 m² · floor 95 m²
Built 1974 (52 yrs) · Wood

Median transaction price by year

Show data table

Year	House
2018	–
2021	–
2024	¥4.8M
2025	–

Median price per m² by year