Tokai City Housing Market Report 2026
Data updated 2026-11-11 · Source: MLIT transaction price survey, 2005 Q3–2026 Q2 · Transactions in 2025: 225
In short
- 1Price growth is speeding up
House values per m² have risen about 2.6% a year over the past five years, faster than the 1% a year of the five years before.
- 2Outperforming Aichi
Per m², houses here are 20% above the Aichi average.
- 3Being near a station is worth a lot
Condos within a 5-minute walk of a station sell for about 111% more per m² than those 16–29 minutes away.
- 4A family market
93% of recent condo sales have three or more bedrooms.
The answers, compared
What does a home cost?
¥38.0M
median house · ¥330k/m²
15% above the Aichi median
3 of 30 areas in Aichi, highest first
Are prices rising?
+26.3%
over 5 years
Faster than Aichi (+19.0%)
19 of 63 areas in Aichi, highest first
Can local earners afford it?
9.6× income
median price ÷ average taxable income
Harder than Aichi (4.9×)
4 of 61 areas in Aichi, highest first
Rent or buy?
56years of rent
median price ÷ a year of median rent
Longer than Aichi (30)
4 of 61 areas in Aichi, highest first
Are people moving in?
-1.1%
population, 2020–25
Shrinking slower than Aichi (-1.2%)
27 of 64 areas in Aichi, highest first
How risky is it?
49%
chance of strong shaking (6-lower+) in 30 years
Lower than Aichi (56%)
42 of 64 areas in Aichi, highest first
Rent in Tokai City
The average private rental costs ¥61k a month (2023), +9.8% since 2018. Aichi: ¥61k
| Floor area | Typical layout | Average rent / month | Tokai CityAichi |
|---|---|---|---|
| under 30 m² studio / 1K | studio / 1K | ¥46k vs 2018 +1.3% · Aichi: ¥48k | |
| 30–49 m² 1LDK / 2DK | 1LDK / 2DK | ¥60k vs 2018 +10.4% · Aichi: ¥58k | |
| 50–69 m² 2LDK / 3DK | 2LDK / 3DK | ¥68k vs 2018 +7.2% · Aichi: ¥68k | |
| 70–99 m² 3LDK / family | 3LDK / family | ¥73k vs 2018 +12.7% · Aichi: ¥82k | |
| 100–149 m² mostly houses | mostly houses | ¥66k vs 2018 +7.8% · Aichi: ¥75k |
- Rent per m²
- ¥1,354
- median, per month · Aichi: ¥1,453
Source: Statistics Bureau of Japan, Housing and Land Survey 2023. Privately owned rentals (excluding rent-free homes), monthly rent without management fees. These averages include older homes, so they run below asking rents for newly listed units. 13,190 rented homes.
What the data says
Price growth is speeding up
House values per m² have risen about 2.6% a year over the past five years, faster than the 1% a year of the five years before. Buyers waiting for a dip have so far been paying more each year, and that has not yet changed.
Outperforming Aichi
Per m², houses here are 20% above the Aichi average. The premium has grown from 13% ten years ago, so Tokai City has been outperforming its surroundings.
Being near a station is worth a lot
Condos within a 5-minute walk of a station sell for about 111% more per m² than those 16–29 minutes away. If budget is tight, a longer walk is the quickest way to cut the price.
A family market
93% of recent condo sales have three or more bedrooms. Demand comes mainly from owner-occupier families, which tends to make prices steadier but rental yields lower.
What a typical purchase costs
Half of all house sales last year were between ¥25.0M and ¥50.0M. Listings outside that range are either unusual properties or worth a closer look.
A shrinking population
The population fell 1.1% between 2020 and 2025 (−1.2% for the wider area). Moves in and out roughly balanced in 2025. Households still grew 1.2% as people live in smaller households, which supports demand for smaller homes even as the population shrinks.
Typical vacancy
12.8% of homes were empty in 2023 (11.8% for the wider area), and 7.8% were empty without being for rent, for sale or used as second homes. The level of abandoned homes is around the national norm.
Moderate earthquake risk
The government's seismic model gives a 49% chance of shaking of intensity 6-lower or stronger in the next 30 years (56% for the wider area). Post-1981 buildings are designed for this level of shaking, but check ground conditions and insurance.
Local incomes are close to average
Taxpayers here reported an average taxable income of ¥3.9m in 2023 (¥4.1m for the wider area). That is +16% since 2014. Averages are pulled up by a few very high earners, so a typical household earns less than this.
Official land prices are edging up
On the government's fixed benchmark sites, which are valued the same way every year, residential land prices changed +1% in the year to January 2026 and +21% over five years. They are still 34% below their 1991 bubble-era level. Because these sites don't change, this is the cleanest measure of land value trends.
Little exposure to flooding
Very few of the official benchmark sites here fall in flood, tsunami or landslide zones, so most typical neighbourhoods are outside mapped hazard areas.
Living in Tokai City: people, homes and risks
- Population 2025
- 112,487
- -1.1% since 2020
- Aichi: -1.2%
- Net moves in 2025
- +172
- +1.53 per 1,000 residents
- Aichi: -0.29
- Vacant homes (2023)
- 12.8%
- 7.8% empty and not for rent or sale
- Aichi: 11.8%
- Median rent (2023)
- ¥57k
- per month, all rented homes
- Aichi: ¥55k
- Strong earthquake risk
- 49.0%
- chance of shaking of intensity 6-lower or more within 30 years
- Aichi: 56.0%
- Average income per taxpayer
- ¥3.9M
- taxable income in 2023
- Aichi: ¥4.1M
- Daytime population
- 102
- people here by day per 100 residents (2020 census)
- Foreign residents
- 2.4%
- 2,761 registered residents in 2024
- Aichi: 4.3%
- Clinics
- 6.5
- per 10,000 residents; 2 hospitals, 52 dental clinics (2020)
- Aichi: 7.4
- Official land price 2026
- ¥110k/m²
- +1.1% in a year · +21.2% in 5 years
- Aichi: ¥109k/m²
- Flood exposure
- 0.0%
- of 34 benchmark sites in a worst-case flood zone (0.0% 3 m or deeper)
- Aichi: 40.5%
- Tsunami exposure
- 2.9%
- of 34 benchmark sites in a tsunami inundation zone
- Aichi: 10.0%
- Landslide exposure
- 0.0%
- of 34 benchmark sites in a landslide warning area
- Aichi: 0.4%
Check flood, landslide and tsunami zones for a specific address on the government hazard map ↗
Sources: 2025 Census (preliminary), 2025 Internal Migration Report, 2023 Housing and Land Survey (Statistics Bureau of Japan); J-SHIS seismic hazard model (NIED, 2024); Land Price Publication (MLIT); recorded crime: Tokyo Metropolitan Police Department (Tokyo only); incomes: Ministry of Internal Affairs taxation survey via the Statistics Bureau's municipal indicators; foreign residents: Basic Resident Register; medical facilities and station passengers: MLIT National Land Numerical Information. Earthquake probability is measured at the municipal center.
Example sales in Tokai City
Real transactions from the last four quarters, picked near the lower (20th percentile), middle and upper (80th percentile) price points. Locations are shown at district level, as published by MLIT.
Condo
¥8.0M
¥133k/m²
- Fukishimamachi
- Otagawa
- 2LDK · 60 m²
- Built 1994 (31 yrs) · RC
¥21.0M
¥280k/m²
- Nawamachi
- Nawa(Aichi) · 16 min walk
- 3LDK · 75 m²
- Built 2002 (23 yrs) · RC
¥31.0M
¥344k/m²
- Yokosukamachi
- Owari Yokosuka · 3 min walk
- 4LDK · 90 m²
- Built 2013 (12 yrs) · RC
House
¥21.0M
¥221k/m²
- Otamachi
- Otagawa · 5 min walk
- Land 100 m² · floor 95 m²
- Built 2011 (14 yrs) · Wood
¥37.0M
¥411k/m²
- Nawamachi
- Nawa(Aichi) · 24 min walk
- Land 200 m² · floor 90 m²
- Built 2016 (10 yrs) · Wood
¥51.0M
¥537k/m²
- Araomachi
- Shurakuen · 15 min walk
- Land 155 m² · floor 95 m²
- Built 2024 (1 yrs) · Light steel
Show data table
| Year | Condo | House |
|---|---|---|
| 2007 | – | ¥33.0M |
| 2008 | – | ¥36.0M |
| 2009 | ¥12.0M | ¥35.0M |
| 2010 | ¥14.5M | ¥36.0M |
| 2011 | ¥12.5M | ¥36.0M |
| 2012 | ¥10.5M | ¥35.0M |
| 2013 | – | ¥31.0M |
| 2014 | ¥17.0M | ¥33.0M |
| 2015 | ¥15.0M | ¥34.0M |
| 2016 | ¥16.5M | ¥31.0M |
| 2017 | – | ¥32.0M |
| 2018 | ¥19.0M | ¥32.0M |
| 2019 | ¥19.0M | ¥33.0M |
| 2020 | – | ¥34.0M |
| 2021 | ¥18.0M | ¥35.0M |
| 2022 | ¥17.0M | ¥37.0M |
| 2023 | – | ¥37.0M |
| 2024 | ¥21.0M | ¥41.0M |
| 2025 | – | ¥38.0M |
| 2026 (partial) | – | ¥34.0M |
Show data table
| Year | Condo | House | Land |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2007 | – | ¥273k/m² | ¥85k/m² |
| 2008 | – | ¥308k/m² | ¥85k/m² |
| 2009 | ¥169k/m² | ¥304k/m² | ¥100k/m² |
| 2010 | ¥187k/m² | ¥274k/m² | ¥87k/m² |
| 2011 | ¥155k/m² | ¥284k/m² | ¥81k/m² |
| 2012 | ¥154k/m² | ¥271k/m² | ¥80k/m² |
| 2013 | – | ¥270k/m² | ¥84k/m² |
| 2014 | ¥227k/m² | ¥274k/m² | ¥85k/m² |
| 2015 | ¥194k/m² | ¥305k/m² | ¥83k/m² |
| 2016 | ¥189k/m² | ¥272k/m² | ¥80k/m² |
| 2017 | – | ¥280k/m² | ¥75k/m² |
| 2018 | ¥260k/m² | ¥298k/m² | ¥78k/m² |
| 2019 | ¥271k/m² | ¥310k/m² | ¥32k/m² |
| 2020 | – | ¥298k/m² | ¥76k/m² |
| 2021 | ¥249k/m² | ¥310k/m² | ¥72k/m² |
| 2022 | ¥238k/m² | ¥296k/m² | ¥83k/m² |
| 2023 | – | ¥340k/m² | ¥83k/m² |
| 2024 | ¥238k/m² | ¥362k/m² | ¥110k/m² |
| 2025 | – | ¥330k/m² | ¥96k/m² |
| 2026 (partial) | – | ¥250k/m² | ¥110k/m² |
Show data table
| Building age (years) | House |
|---|---|
| 0 | ¥362k/m² |
| 1 | ¥347k/m² |
| 50 | ¥89k/m² |
Each line follows buildings from one construction period over time. 1981 is when Japan's current earthquake-resistance standard (shin-taishin) took effect.
Show data table
| Year | 2001-2010 | 2011-2020 |
|---|---|---|
| 2008 | ¥322k/m² | – |
| 2009 | ¥323k/m² | – |
| 2010 | ¥270k/m² | ¥364k/m² |
| 2011 | – | ¥322k/m² |
| 2012 | – | ¥304k/m² |
| 2013 | – | ¥288k/m² |
| 2014 | – | ¥305k/m² |
| 2015 | – | ¥314k/m² |
| 2016 | – | ¥295k/m² |
| 2017 | – | ¥315k/m² |
| 2018 | – | ¥305k/m² |
| 2019 | – | ¥329k/m² |
| 2020 | – | ¥320k/m² |
Prices near train stations in Tokai City
Sales from 2023–2025, grouped by nearest station.
| Station | Median used condo price | Condo price per m² | Median house price (land + building) | Walk (min) | Sales | Daily passengers (2023) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kagiyanakanoike (加木屋中ノ池) | – | – | ¥53.0M | 18 | 80 | 809 |
| Otagawa (太田川) | ¥21.0M | ¥233k/m² | ¥35.0M | 20 | 75 | 19,613-5% vs 2019 |
| Minami Kagiya (南加木屋) | ¥26.0M | ¥341k/m² | ¥43.5M | 10 | 67 | 7,817-7% vs 2019 |
| Shin Nittetsu Mae (新日鉄前) | – | – | ¥34.0M | 14 | 39 | 1,796-14% vs 2019 |
| Nawa(Aichi) (名和(愛知)) | ¥13.5M | ¥174k/m² | ¥34.0M | 16 | 35 | 5,283-7% vs 2019 |
| Owari Yokosuka (尾張横須賀) | ¥22.5M | ¥255k/m² | ¥39.0M | 5 | 34 | 4,664-15% vs 2019 |
| Shurakuen (聚楽園) | – | – | ¥35.0M | 15 | 29 | 6,613-1% vs 2019 |
| Yawata Shinden (八幡新田) | – | – | ¥32.0M | 9 | 27 | 2,378-10% vs 2019 |
| Takayokosuka (高横須賀) | – | – | – | 8 | 10 | 3,025-2% vs 2019 |
Used condo prices by layout in Tokai City
Sales from 2023–2025.
| Layout | Median used condo price | Typical size | Sales |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3LDK | ¥24.0M | 70 m² | 33 |
| 4LDK | ¥21.0M | 85 m² | 17 |
How much does a house cost in Tokai City?
The median house sale, including the land, was ¥38.0M in 2025 across 113 sales.
Are property prices in Tokai City going up?
Over the five years to 2025, residential land prices changed +26.3%.
About this data
Figures are medians of real transactions reported to Japan's Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism (MLIT) through its quarterly price survey. House prices per m² divide the total price (land and building) by the floor area. Medians based on fewer than 20 sales are not shown. The latest quarters are preliminary and are revised as more survey responses arrive.
Information only, not investment advice.