Tokamachi City Housing Market Report 2026
Data updated 2026-11-11 · Source: MLIT transaction price survey, 2005 Q3–2026 Q2 · Transactions in 2025: 50
In short
- 1Lagging Niigata
Per m², houses here are 78% below the Niigata average.
- 2Station distance barely matters
Houses 11–15 minutes from a station sell for similar or higher prices than those near one, which usually means buyers here drive or value quiet residential streets.
- 3Sales are thinning out
Transactions are down about 15% on the previous three years.
- 4What a typical purchase costs
Half of all house sales last year were between ¥1.0M and ¥6.8M.
The answers, compared
What does a home cost?
¥3.5M
median house · ¥16k/m²
79% below the Niigata median
23 of 23 areas in Niigata, highest first
Are prices rising?
-34.6%
over 5 years
Slower than Niigata (+27.2%)
24 of 26 areas in Niigata, highest first
Can local earners afford it?
1.2× income
median price ÷ average taxable income
Easier than Niigata (5.0×)
22 of 25 areas in Niigata, highest first
Rent or buy?
6years of rent
median price ÷ a year of median rent
Shorter than Niigata (27)
23 of 25 areas in Niigata, highest first
Are people moving in?
-10.6%
population, 2020–25
Shrinking faster than Niigata (-6.0%)
25 of 26 areas in Niigata, highest first
How risky is it?
4%
chance of strong shaking (6-lower+) in 30 years
Lower than Niigata (12%)
23 of 26 areas in Niigata, highest first
Rent in Tokamachi City
The average private rental costs ¥48k a month (2023), -8.3% since 2018. Niigata: ¥51k
| Floor area | Typical layout | Average rent / month | Tokamachi CityNiigata |
|---|---|---|---|
| under 30 m² studio / 1K | studio / 1K | ¥48k vs 2018 +8.3% · Niigata: ¥40k | |
| 30–49 m² 1LDK / 2DK | 1LDK / 2DK | ¥50k vs 2018 -8.0% · Niigata: ¥51k |
- Rent per m²
- ¥1,335
- median, per month · Niigata: ¥1,293
Source: Statistics Bureau of Japan, Housing and Land Survey 2023. Privately owned rentals (excluding rent-free homes), monthly rent without management fees. These averages include older homes, so they run below asking rents for newly listed units. 1,780 rented homes.
What the data says
Lagging Niigata
Per m², houses here are 78% below the Niigata average. Ten years ago the gap was 61%, so Tokamachi City has been falling behind the rest of Niigata.
Station distance barely matters
Houses 11–15 minutes from a station sell for similar or higher prices than those near one, which usually means buyers here drive or value quiet residential streets.
Sales are thinning out
Transactions are down about 15% on the previous three years. Fewer sales mean less choice and slower resale, so allow more time to sell later.
What a typical purchase costs
Half of all house sales last year were between ¥1.0M and ¥6.8M. Listings outside that range are either unusual properties or worth a closer look.
A shrinking population
The population fell 10.6% between 2020 and 2025 (−6% for the wider area). More people moved out than in during 2025 (about 8.9 per 1,000 residents), which weakens long-term housing demand.
Many abandoned homes
11.5% of homes were empty in 2023 (15.3% for the wider area), and 9.1% were empty without being for rent, for sale or used as second homes. That is a high share of truly abandoned homes (akiya), a sign of weak demand. Cheap houses are easy to find, but resale can be slow.
Lower earthquake risk
The government's seismic model gives a 4% chance of shaking of intensity 6-lower or stronger in the next 30 years (12% for the wider area). This is low by Japanese standards, although no part of Japan is free of earthquake risk.
Local incomes are below average
Taxpayers here reported an average taxable income of ¥2.8m in 2023 (¥3.2m for the wider area). That is +19% since 2014. Averages are pulled up by a few very high earners, so a typical household earns less than this.
Official land prices are still falling
On the government's fixed benchmark sites, which are valued the same way every year, residential land prices changed -1% in the year to January 2026 and -8% over five years. Because these sites don't change, this is the cleanest measure of land value trends.
Some flood or landslide exposure
Of the official land-price benchmark sites here, which sit in typical neighbourhoods, 14% are inside the worst-case flood zone, 14% are in a landslide warning area. Most worst-case flood zones are shallow (under 0.5 m) at the edges, so depth matters as much as the share. Check the hazard map for any specific address before buying.
Living in Tokamachi City: people, homes and risks
- Population 2025
- 44,541
- -10.6% since 2020
- Niigata: -6.0%
- Net moves in 2025
- -398
- -8.94 per 1,000 residents
- Niigata: -3.08
- Vacant homes (2023)
- 11.5%
- 9.1% empty and not for rent or sale
- Niigata: 15.3%
- Median rent (2023)
- ¥48k
- per month, all rented homes
- Niigata: ¥49k
- Strong earthquake risk
- 4.4%
- chance of shaking of intensity 6-lower or more within 30 years
- Niigata: 11.9%
- Average income per taxpayer
- ¥2.8M
- taxable income in 2023
- Niigata: ¥3.2M
- Daytime population
- 98
- people here by day per 100 residents (2020 census)
- Foreign residents
- 0.8%
- 397 registered residents in 2024
- Niigata: 1.1%
- Clinics
- 8.3
- per 10,000 residents; 2 hospitals, 20 dental clinics (2020)
- Niigata: 8.2
- Official land price 2026
- ¥23k/m²
- -1.2% in a year · -7.6% in 5 years
- Niigata: ¥28k/m²
- Flood exposure
- 14.3%
- of 7 benchmark sites in a worst-case flood zone (0.0% 3 m or deeper)
- Niigata: 64.2%
- Landslide exposure
- 14.3%
- of 7 benchmark sites in a landslide warning area
- Niigata: 2.7%
Check flood, landslide and tsunami zones for a specific address on the government hazard map ↗
Sources: 2025 Census (preliminary), 2025 Internal Migration Report, 2023 Housing and Land Survey (Statistics Bureau of Japan); J-SHIS seismic hazard model (NIED, 2024); Land Price Publication (MLIT); recorded crime: Tokyo Metropolitan Police Department (Tokyo only); incomes: Ministry of Internal Affairs taxation survey via the Statistics Bureau's municipal indicators; foreign residents: Basic Resident Register; medical facilities and station passengers: MLIT National Land Numerical Information. Earthquake probability is measured at the municipal center.
Example sales in Tokamachi City
Real transactions from the last four quarters, picked near the lower (20th percentile), middle and upper (80th percentile) price points. Locations are shown at district level, as published by MLIT.
House
¥1.8M
¥24k/m²
- Yokkamachishinden
- Tokamachi · 23 min walk
- Land 185 m² · floor 75 m²
- Built 1968 (58 yrs) · Wood
¥4.0M
¥20k/m²
- Sumiyoshicho
- Tokamachi · 9 min walk
- Land 590 m² · floor 200 m²
- Built 1968 (58 yrs) · Wood
¥8.0M
¥33k/m²
- Gejo
- Gejo · 25 min walk
- Land 500 m² · floor 240 m²
- Built 2001 (25 yrs) · Wood
Show data table
| Year | House |
|---|---|
| 2007 | – |
| 2008 | ¥8.0M |
| 2009 | ¥5.5M |
| 2010 | ¥5.7M |
| 2011 | ¥7.0M |
| 2012 | ¥5.0M |
| 2013 | ¥5.0M |
| 2014 | ¥5.0M |
| 2015 | ¥4.0M |
| 2016 | ¥3.4M |
| 2017 | ¥6.0M |
| 2018 | ¥4.4M |
| 2019 | – |
| 2020 | ¥4.2M |
| 2021 | ¥2.9M |
| 2022 | ¥3.4M |
| 2023 | ¥4.1M |
| 2024 | ¥3.0M |
| 2025 | ¥3.5M |
Show data table
| Year | House | Land |
|---|---|---|
| 2007 | – | ¥19k/m² |
| 2008 | ¥70k/m² | ¥22k/m² |
| 2009 | ¥29k/m² | ¥18k/m² |
| 2010 | ¥37k/m² | ¥15k/m² |
| 2011 | ¥44k/m² | ¥15k/m² |
| 2012 | ¥36k/m² | ¥15k/m² |
| 2013 | ¥32k/m² | ¥13k/m² |
| 2014 | ¥33k/m² | ¥15k/m² |
| 2015 | ¥31k/m² | ¥16k/m² |
| 2016 | ¥29k/m² | ¥15k/m² |
| 2017 | ¥35k/m² | ¥12k/m² |
| 2018 | ¥23k/m² | ¥12k/m² |
| 2019 | – | ¥20k/m² |
| 2020 | ¥32k/m² | ¥12k/m² |
| 2021 | ¥20k/m² | ¥12k/m² |
| 2022 | ¥20k/m² | ¥10k/m² |
| 2023 | ¥19k/m² | ¥12k/m² |
| 2024 | ¥16k/m² | ¥11k/m² |
| 2025 | ¥16k/m² | ¥8k/m² |
Prices near train stations in Tokamachi City
Sales from 2023–2025, grouped by nearest station.
| Station | Median used condo price | Condo price per m² | Median house price (land + building) | Walk (min) | Sales | Daily passengers (2023) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tokamachi (十日町) | – | – | ¥4.7M | 13 | 56 | 1,841-26% vs 2019 |
| Matsudai (まつだい) | – | – | ¥900k | 9 | 15 | 340-21% vs 2019 |
How much does a house cost in Tokamachi City?
The median house sale, including the land, was ¥3.5M in 2025 across 26 sales.
Are property prices in Tokamachi City going up?
Over the five years to 2025, residential land prices changed -34.6%.
About this data
Figures are medians of real transactions reported to Japan's Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism (MLIT) through its quarterly price survey. House prices per m² divide the total price (land and building) by the floor area. Medians based on fewer than 20 sales are not shown. The latest quarters are preliminary and are revised as more survey responses arrive.
Information only, not investment advice.