Photo: Chureito Pagoda, Fujiyoshida, Yamanashi · Willian Justen de Vasconcellos / Unsplash

Otsuki City Housing Market Report 2026

Data updated 2026-11-11 · Source: MLIT transaction price survey, 2005 Q3–2026 Q2 · Transactions in 2025: 44

In short

1
Being near a station is worth a lot
Houses within a 5-minute walk of a station sell for about 51% more per m² than those 11–15 minutes away.
2
A shrinking population
The population fell 11% between 2020 and 2025 (−3.7% for the wider area).
3
Many abandoned homes
22.1% of homes were empty in 2023 (20.4% for the wider area), and 14.9% were empty without being for rent, for sale or used as second homes.
4
Moderate earthquake risk
The government's seismic model gives a 38% chance of shaking of intensity 6-lower or stronger in the next 30 years (40% for the wider area).

The answers, compared

Are people moving in?

-11.0%

population, 2020–25

Shrinking faster than Yamanashi (-3.7%)

15 of 15 areas in Yamanashi, highest first

How risky is it?

38%

chance of strong shaking (6-lower+) in 30 years

In line with Yamanashi (40%)

11 of 15 areas in Yamanashi, highest first

Residential land per m² (sales): ¥38k/m²
Transactions in 2025: 44

Rent in Otsuki City

The average private rental costs ¥48k a month (2023), +2.7% since 2018. Yamanashi: ¥52k

Floor area	Typical layout	Average rent / month	Otsuki CityYamanashi
under 30 m² studio / 1K	studio / 1K	¥42k vs 2018 -0.1% · Yamanashi: ¥40k

Rent per m²: ¥1,347; median, per month · Yamanashi: ¥1,270

Source: Statistics Bureau of Japan, Housing and Land Survey 2023. Privately owned rentals (excluding rent-free homes), monthly rent without management fees. These averages include older homes, so they run below asking rents for newly listed units. 740 rented homes.

What the data says

Being near a station is worth a lot

Houses within a 5-minute walk of a station sell for about 51% more per m² than those 11–15 minutes away. If budget is tight, a longer walk is the quickest way to cut the price.

A shrinking population

The population fell 11% between 2020 and 2025 (−3.7% for the wider area). More people moved out than in during 2025 (about 5.3 per 1,000 residents), which weakens long-term housing demand.

Many abandoned homes

22.1% of homes were empty in 2023 (20.4% for the wider area), and 14.9% were empty without being for rent, for sale or used as second homes. That is a high share of truly abandoned homes (akiya), a sign of weak demand. Cheap houses are easy to find, but resale can be slow.

Moderate earthquake risk

The government's seismic model gives a 38% chance of shaking of intensity 6-lower or stronger in the next 30 years (40% for the wider area). Post-1981 buildings are designed for this level of shaking, but check ground conditions and insurance.

Local incomes are below average

Taxpayers here reported an average taxable income of ¥3.1m in 2023 (¥3.5m for the wider area). That is +12% since 2014. Averages are pulled up by a few very high earners, so a typical household earns less than this.

Official land prices are still falling

On the government's fixed benchmark sites, which are valued the same way every year, residential land prices changed -1% in the year to January 2026 and -4% over five years. Because these sites don't change, this is the cleanest measure of land value trends.

Some flood or landslide exposure

Of the official land-price benchmark sites here, which sit in typical neighbourhoods, 40% are in a landslide warning area. Most worst-case flood zones are shallow (under 0.5 m) at the edges, so depth matters as much as the share. Check the hazard map for any specific address before buying.

Living in Otsuki City: people, homes and risks

Population 2025: 20,045; -11.0% since 2020; Yamanashi: -3.7%
Net moves in 2025: -106; -5.29 per 1,000 residents; Yamanashi: -1.11
Vacant homes (2023): 22.1%; 14.9% empty and not for rent or sale; Yamanashi: 20.4%
Median rent (2023): ¥36k; per month, all rented homes; Yamanashi: ¥48k
Strong earthquake risk: 38.1%; chance of shaking of intensity 6-lower or more within 30 years; Yamanashi: 40.4%
Average income per taxpayer: ¥3.1M; taxable income in 2023; Yamanashi: ¥3.5M
Daytime population: 92; people here by day per 100 residents (2020 census)
Foreign residents: 1.7%; 362 registered residents in 2024; Yamanashi: 2.9%
Clinics: 10.5; per 10,000 residents; 1 hospitals, 13 dental clinics (2020); Yamanashi: 8.9
Official land price 2026: ¥58k/m²; -0.9% in a year · -4.2% in 5 years; Yamanashi: ¥34k/m²
Flood exposure: 0.0%; of 5 benchmark sites in a worst-case flood zone (0.0% 3 m or deeper); Yamanashi: 49.4%
Landslide exposure: 40.0%; of 5 benchmark sites in a landslide warning area; Yamanashi: 3.1%

Check flood, landslide and tsunami zones for a specific address on the government hazard map ↗

Sources: 2025 Census (preliminary), 2025 Internal Migration Report, 2023 Housing and Land Survey (Statistics Bureau of Japan); J-SHIS seismic hazard model (NIED, 2024); Land Price Publication (MLIT); recorded crime: Tokyo Metropolitan Police Department (Tokyo only); incomes: Ministry of Internal Affairs taxation survey via the Statistics Bureau's municipal indicators; foreign residents: Basic Resident Register; medical facilities and station passengers: MLIT National Land Numerical Information. Earthquake probability is measured at the municipal center.

Example sales in Otsuki City

Real transactions from the last four quarters, picked near the lower (20th percentile), middle and upper (80th percentile) price points. Locations are shown at district level, as published by MLIT.

House

Lower-priced2026 Q1

¥1.4M

¥14k/m²

Nigiokamachi
Otsuki
Land 110 m² · floor 100 m²
Built 1989 (37 yrs) · Wood

Typical2025 Q4

¥7.0M

¥54k/m²

Nigiokamachi
Otsuki
Land 380 m² · floor 130 m²
Built 1980 (45 yrs) · Wood

Higher-priced2025 Q4

¥12.0M

¥89k/m²

Saruhashimachi
Saruhashi · 28 min walk
Land 200 m² · floor 135 m²
Built 1989 (36 yrs) · Light steel

Median transaction price by year

Show data table

Year	House
2008	–
2009	–
2010	–
2011	–
2012	–
2013	–
2014	–
2016	–
2017	–
2019	¥6.3M
2021	¥4.0M
2023	¥8.8M
2025	–

Median price per m² by year