Arida City Housing Market Report 2026
Data updated 2026-11-11 · Source: MLIT transaction price survey, 2005 Q3–2026 Q2 · Transactions in 2025: 38
In short
- 1A shrinking population
The population fell 13.2% between 2020 and 2025 (−6.3% for the wider area).
- 2Many abandoned homes
20.8% of homes were empty in 2023 (21.3% for the wider area), and 15.6% were empty without being for rent, for sale or used as second homes.
- 3High earthquake risk
The government's seismic model gives a 76% chance of shaking of intensity 6-lower or stronger in the next 30 years (59% for the wider area).
- 4Local incomes are close to average
Taxpayers here reported an average taxable income of ¥3.4m in 2023 (¥3.4m for the wider area).
The answers, compared
Are prices rising?
-31.2%
over 5 years
Slower than Wakayama (+58.7%)
11 of 12 areas in Wakayama, highest first
Are people moving in?
-13.2%
population, 2020–25
Shrinking faster than Wakayama (-6.3%)
13 of 14 areas in Wakayama, highest first
How risky is it?
76%
chance of strong shaking (6-lower+) in 30 years
Higher than Wakayama (59%)
3 of 14 areas in Wakayama, highest first
Key figures for 2025
- Residential land per m² (sales)
- ¥11k/m²
- -31.2% over 5 years
- Transactions in 2025
- 38
Rent in Arida City
The average private rental costs ¥47k a month (2023), -1.1% since 2018. Wakayama: ¥49k
- Rent per m²
- ¥982
- median, per month · Wakayama: ¥1,131
Source: Statistics Bureau of Japan, Housing and Land Survey 2023. Privately owned rentals (excluding rent-free homes), monthly rent without management fees. These averages include older homes, so they run below asking rents for newly listed units. 820 rented homes.
What the data says
A shrinking population
The population fell 13.2% between 2020 and 2025 (−6.3% for the wider area). More people moved out than in during 2025 (about 10.7 per 1,000 residents), which weakens long-term housing demand.
Many abandoned homes
20.8% of homes were empty in 2023 (21.3% for the wider area), and 15.6% were empty without being for rent, for sale or used as second homes. That is a high share of truly abandoned homes (akiya), a sign of weak demand. Cheap houses are easy to find, but resale can be slow.
High earthquake risk
The government's seismic model gives a 76% chance of shaking of intensity 6-lower or stronger in the next 30 years (59% for the wider area). Check the building's earthquake standard (post-1981, ideally post-2000 for wooden houses) and consider earthquake insurance.
Local incomes are close to average
Taxpayers here reported an average taxable income of ¥3.4m in 2023 (¥3.4m for the wider area). That is +18% since 2014. Averages are pulled up by a few very high earners, so a typical household earns less than this.
Official land prices are still falling
On the government's fixed benchmark sites, which are valued the same way every year, residential land prices changed -2% in the year to January 2026 and -13% over five years. Because these sites don't change, this is the cleanest measure of land value trends.
Significant flood risk
Of the official land-price benchmark sites here, which sit in typical neighbourhoods, 100% are inside the worst-case flood zone (60% with expected depths of 3 m or more), 80% are in a tsunami inundation zone, 20% are in a landslide warning area. Most worst-case flood zones are shallow (under 0.5 m) at the edges, so depth matters as much as the share. Check the hazard map for any specific address before buying.
Living in Arida City: people, homes and risks
- Population 2025
- 23,034
- -13.2% since 2020
- Wakayama: -6.3%
- Net moves in 2025
- -247
- -10.72 per 1,000 residents
- Wakayama: -3.25
- Vacant homes (2023)
- 20.8%
- 15.6% empty and not for rent or sale
- Wakayama: 21.3%
- Median rent (2023)
- ¥40k
- per month, all rented homes
- Wakayama: ¥44k
- Strong earthquake risk
- 75.9%
- chance of shaking of intensity 6-lower or more within 30 years
- Wakayama: 58.6%
- Average income per taxpayer
- ¥3.4M
- taxable income in 2023
- Wakayama: ¥3.4M
- Daytime population
- 95
- people here by day per 100 residents (2020 census)
- Foreign residents
- 0.8%
- 198 registered residents in 2024
- Wakayama: 1.1%
- Clinics
- 12.6
- per 10,000 residents; 2 hospitals, 15 dental clinics (2020)
- Wakayama: 11.9
- Official land price 2026
- ¥30k/m²
- -2.4% in a year · -12.8% in 5 years
- Wakayama: ¥32k/m²
- Flood exposure
- 100.0%
- of 5 benchmark sites in a worst-case flood zone (60.0% 3 m or deeper)
- Wakayama: 54.7%
- Tsunami exposure
- 80.0%
- of 5 benchmark sites in a tsunami inundation zone
- Wakayama: 33.7%
- Landslide exposure
- 20.0%
- of 5 benchmark sites in a landslide warning area
- Wakayama: 11.6%
Check flood, landslide and tsunami zones for a specific address on the government hazard map ↗
Sources: 2025 Census (preliminary), 2025 Internal Migration Report, 2023 Housing and Land Survey (Statistics Bureau of Japan); J-SHIS seismic hazard model (NIED, 2024); Land Price Publication (MLIT); recorded crime: Tokyo Metropolitan Police Department (Tokyo only); incomes: Ministry of Internal Affairs taxation survey via the Statistics Bureau's municipal indicators; foreign residents: Basic Resident Register; medical facilities and station passengers: MLIT National Land Numerical Information. Earthquake probability is measured at the municipal center.
Show data table
| Year | House |
|---|---|
| 2008 | – |
| 2009 | – |
| 2012 | – |
| 2013 | ¥7.6M |
| 2014 | ¥9.0M |
| 2015 | – |
| 2016 | – |
| 2018 | ¥16.5M |
| 2019 | ¥5.0M |
| 2020 | – |
| 2022 | – |
| 2023 | – |
| 2025 | – |
Show data table
| Year | House | Land |
|---|---|---|
| 2008 | – | ¥28k/m² |
| 2009 | – | ¥41k/m² |
| 2012 | – | ¥25k/m² |
| 2013 | ¥73k/m² | ¥15k/m² |
| 2014 | ¥82k/m² | ¥25k/m² |
| 2015 | – | ¥25k/m² |
| 2016 | – | ¥15k/m² |
| 2018 | ¥81k/m² | ¥12k/m² |
| 2019 | ¥33k/m² | ¥11k/m² |
| 2020 | – | ¥16k/m² |
| 2022 | – | ¥25k/m² |
| 2023 | – | ¥19k/m² |
| 2025 | – | ¥11k/m² |
Prices near train stations in Arida City
Sales from 2023–2025, grouped by nearest station.
| Station | Median used condo price | Condo price per m² | Median house price (land + building) | Walk (min) | Sales | Daily passengers (2023) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Minoshima (箕島) | – | – | ¥3.5M | 15 | 26 | 2,596-21% vs 2019 |
| Kii Miyahara (紀伊宮原) | – | – | ¥4.3M | 11 | 14 | 1,002-15% vs 2019 |
Are property prices in Arida City going up?
Over the five years to 2025, residential land prices changed -31.3%.
About this data
Figures are medians of real transactions reported to Japan's Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism (MLIT) through its quarterly price survey. House prices per m² divide the total price (land and building) by the floor area. Medians based on fewer than 20 sales are not shown. The latest quarters are preliminary and are revised as more survey responses arrive.
Information only, not investment advice.