Tokushima City Housing Market Report 2026
Data updated 2026-11-11 · Source: MLIT transaction price survey, 2005 Q3–2026 Q2 · Transactions in 2025: 462
In short
- 1The trend has turned down
After rising earlier, condo prices per m² have slipped by about 1.9% a year over the last five years.
- 2Moving with Tokushima
Per m², condos here are priced close to the Tokushima average.
- 3Station distance barely matters
Condos 11–15 minutes from a station sell for similar or higher prices than those near one, which usually means buyers here drive or value quiet residential streets.
- 4A family market
68% of recent condo sales have three or more bedrooms.
The answers, compared
What does a home cost?
¥11.0M
median used condo · ¥173k/m²
0% above the Tokushima median
Are prices rising?
-8.4%
over 5 years
In line with Tokushima (-8.4%)
5 of 8 areas in Tokushima, highest first
Can local earners afford it?
2.9× income
median price ÷ average taxable income
Easier than Tokushima (3.2×)
3 of 5 areas in Tokushima, highest first
Rent or buy?
19years of rent
median price ÷ a year of median rent
In line with Tokushima (20)
3 of 5 areas in Tokushima, highest first
Are people moving in?
-4.5%
population, 2020–25
Shrinking slower than Tokushima (-6.1%)
3 of 8 areas in Tokushima, highest first
How risky is it?
77%
chance of strong shaking (6-lower+) in 30 years
In line with Tokushima (75%)
4 of 8 areas in Tokushima, highest first
Rent in Tokushima City
The average private rental costs ¥50k a month (2023), +3.8% since 2018. Tokushima: ¥49k
| Floor area | Typical layout | Average rent / month | Tokushima CityTokushima |
|---|---|---|---|
| under 30 m² studio / 1K | studio / 1K | ¥38k vs 2018 +2.5% · Tokushima: ¥37k | |
| 30–49 m² 1LDK / 2DK | 1LDK / 2DK | ¥50k vs 2018 +6.7% · Tokushima: ¥48k | |
| 50–69 m² 2LDK / 3DK | 2LDK / 3DK | ¥58k vs 2018 +10.6% · Tokushima: ¥55k | |
| 70–99 m² 3LDK / family | 3LDK / family | ¥64k vs 2018 -5.6% · Tokushima: ¥62k | |
| 100–149 m² mostly houses | mostly houses | ¥54k vs 2018 -10.1% · Tokushima: ¥52k |
- Rent per m²
- ¥1,251
- median, per month · Tokushima: ¥1,164
- The median used condo (¥11.0M, 70 m²) costs about 14 years of average rent for a similar-sized home (¥64k a month).
- Excludes management fees, repair reserve, property tax and mortgage interest.
Source: Statistics Bureau of Japan, Housing and Land Survey 2023. Privately owned rentals (excluding rent-free homes), monthly rent without management fees. These averages include older homes, so they run below asking rents for newly listed units. 38,710 rented homes.
What the data says
The trend has turned down
After rising earlier, condo prices per m² have slipped by about 1.9% a year over the last five years. That often reflects weaker local demand, so check vacancy and population trends before buying.
Moving with Tokushima
Per m², condos here are priced close to the Tokushima average. That position has barely changed in ten years, so it moves with the wider market.
Station distance barely matters
Condos 11–15 minutes from a station sell for similar or higher prices than those near one, which usually means buyers here drive or value quiet residential streets.
A family market
68% of recent condo sales have three or more bedrooms. Demand comes mainly from owner-occupier families, which tends to make prices steadier but rental yields lower.
What a typical purchase costs
Half of all condo sales last year were between ¥6.8M and ¥20.5M. Listings outside that range are either unusual properties or worth a closer look.
A shrinking population
The population fell 4.5% between 2020 and 2025 (−6.1% for the wider area). More people moved out than in during 2025 (about 2.6 per 1,000 residents), which weakens long-term housing demand.
Typical vacancy
18.1% of homes were empty in 2023 (21.3% for the wider area), and 7.1% were empty without being for rent, for sale or used as second homes. The level of abandoned homes is around the national norm.
Buying vs renting
A median used condo costs about 19.1 years of the area's median rent (¥48k a month), compared with 20.2 years for the wider area. That is a middle-of-the-road ratio for Japan. Rents here cover all rented homes, so treat this as a rough guide.
High earthquake risk
The government's seismic model gives a 77% chance of shaking of intensity 6-lower or stronger in the next 30 years (75% for the wider area). Check the building's earthquake standard (post-1981, ideally post-2000 for wooden houses) and consider earthquake insurance.
A typical condo costs 2.9 years of local income
Taxpayers here reported an average taxable income of ¥3.8m in 2023 (¥3.4m for the wider area). That is +17% since 2014. The median resale condo sold for about 2.9 times that, against 3.2 times for the wider area. A higher multiple means prices lean more on buyers from outside the area or on two incomes. Averages are pulled up by a few very high earners, so a typical household earns less than this.
Official land prices are flat
On the government's fixed benchmark sites, which are valued the same way every year, residential land prices changed 0% in the year to January 2026 and -1% over five years. They are still 39% below their 1991 bubble-era level. Because these sites don't change, this is the cleanest measure of land value trends.
Significant flood risk
Of the official land-price benchmark sites here, which sit in typical neighbourhoods, 97% are inside the worst-case flood zone (33% with expected depths of 3 m or more), 83% are in a tsunami inundation zone. Most worst-case flood zones are shallow (under 0.5 m) at the edges, so depth matters as much as the share. Check the hazard map for any specific address before buying.
Living in Tokushima City: people, homes and risks
- Population 2025
- 241,075
- -4.5% since 2020
- Tokushima: -6.1%
- Net moves in 2025
- -640
- -2.65 per 1,000 residents
- Tokushima: -3.62
- Vacant homes (2023)
- 18.1%
- 7.1% empty and not for rent or sale
- Tokushima: 21.3%
- Median rent (2023)
- ¥48k
- per month, all rented homes
- Tokushima: ¥45k
- Strong earthquake risk
- 77.4%
- chance of shaking of intensity 6-lower or more within 30 years
- Tokushima: 74.5%
- Average income per taxpayer
- ¥3.8M
- taxable income in 2023
- Tokushima: ¥3.4M
- Daytime population
- 107
- people here by day per 100 residents (2020 census)
- Foreign residents
- 1.2%
- 3,032 registered residents in 2024
- Tokushima: 1.3%
- Clinics
- 11.6
- per 10,000 residents; 46 hospitals, 176 dental clinics (2020)
- Tokushima: 10.6
- Official land price 2026
- ¥69k/m²
- 0.0% in a year · -0.6% in 5 years
- Tokushima: ¥38k/m²
- Flood exposure
- 96.5%
- of 57 benchmark sites in a worst-case flood zone (33.3% 3 m or deeper)
- Tokushima: 86.3%
- Tsunami exposure
- 82.5%
- of 57 benchmark sites in a tsunami inundation zone
- Tokushima: 72.5%
- Landslide exposure
- 0.0%
- of 57 benchmark sites in a landslide warning area
- Tokushima: 1.5%
Check flood, landslide and tsunami zones for a specific address on the government hazard map ↗
Sources: 2025 Census (preliminary), 2025 Internal Migration Report, 2023 Housing and Land Survey (Statistics Bureau of Japan); J-SHIS seismic hazard model (NIED, 2024); Land Price Publication (MLIT); recorded crime: Tokyo Metropolitan Police Department (Tokyo only); incomes: Ministry of Internal Affairs taxation survey via the Statistics Bureau's municipal indicators; foreign residents: Basic Resident Register; medical facilities and station passengers: MLIT National Land Numerical Information. Earthquake probability is measured at the municipal center.
Example sales in Tokushima City
Real transactions from the last four quarters, picked near the lower (20th percentile), middle and upper (80th percentile) price points. Locations are shown at district level, as published by MLIT.
Condo
¥6.3M
¥105k/m²
- Tomidabashi
- Niken ya · 5 min walk
- 2LDK · 60 m²
- Built 1991 (34 yrs) · SRC
¥12.0M
¥185k/m²
- Hachimancho
- Bunkanomori · 20 min walk
- 3LDK · 65 m²
- Built 1995 (31 yrs) · RC
¥25.0M
¥357k/m²
- Kitamaegawacho
- Tokushima · 13 min walk
- 3LDK · 70 m²
- Built 2012 (14 yrs) · RC
House
¥7.8M
¥65k/m²
- Hachimancho
- Bunkanomori · 25 min walk
- Land 150 m² · floor 120 m²
- Built 1984 (41 yrs) · Wood
¥18.0M
¥16k/m²
- Kamihachimancho
- Bunkanomori
- Land 1400 m² · floor 1100 m²
- Built 1992 (34 yrs) · Steel
¥35.0M
¥200k/m²
- Fukushima
- Tokushima · 20 min walk
- Land 180 m² · floor 175 m²
- Built 1989 (37 yrs) · Steel
Show data table
| Year | Condo | House |
|---|---|---|
| 2007 | ¥9.2M | ¥16.5M |
| 2008 | ¥8.6M | ¥18.0M |
| 2009 | ¥8.8M | ¥18.0M |
| 2010 | ¥8.0M | ¥17.0M |
| 2011 | ¥8.0M | ¥16.0M |
| 2012 | ¥8.6M | ¥18.0M |
| 2013 | ¥9.5M | ¥17.0M |
| 2014 | ¥10.5M | ¥15.0M |
| 2015 | ¥10.0M | ¥17.0M |
| 2016 | ¥8.5M | ¥17.0M |
| 2017 | ¥12.0M | ¥17.0M |
| 2018 | ¥8.7M | ¥15.0M |
| 2019 | ¥15.0M | ¥15.0M |
| 2020 | ¥14.0M | ¥16.0M |
| 2021 | ¥15.0M | ¥15.0M |
| 2022 | ¥12.0M | ¥19.0M |
| 2023 | ¥13.0M | ¥15.0M |
| 2024 | ¥13.0M | ¥17.0M |
| 2025 | ¥11.0M | ¥18.0M |
| 2026 (partial) | ¥13.0M | ¥19.0M |
Show data table
| Year | Condo | House | Land |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2007 | ¥132k/m² | ¥134k/m² | ¥79k/m² |
| 2008 | ¥135k/m² | ¥130k/m² | ¥64k/m² |
| 2009 | ¥138k/m² | ¥107k/m² | ¥68k/m² |
| 2010 | ¥120k/m² | ¥112k/m² | ¥63k/m² |
| 2011 | ¥117k/m² | ¥113k/m² | ¥57k/m² |
| 2012 | ¥141k/m² | ¥118k/m² | ¥54k/m² |
| 2013 | ¥146k/m² | ¥116k/m² | ¥58k/m² |
| 2014 | ¥157k/m² | ¥110k/m² | ¥54k/m² |
| 2015 | ¥140k/m² | ¥114k/m² | ¥48k/m² |
| 2016 | ¥128k/m² | ¥130k/m² | ¥48k/m² |
| 2017 | ¥167k/m² | ¥116k/m² | ¥49k/m² |
| 2018 | ¥148k/m² | ¥111k/m² | ¥45k/m² |
| 2019 | ¥207k/m² | ¥113k/m² | ¥48k/m² |
| 2020 | ¥189k/m² | ¥114k/m² | ¥48k/m² |
| 2021 | ¥175k/m² | ¥107k/m² | ¥51k/m² |
| 2022 | ¥183k/m² | ¥123k/m² | ¥53k/m² |
| 2023 | ¥205k/m² | ¥102k/m² | ¥54k/m² |
| 2024 | ¥186k/m² | ¥101k/m² | ¥53k/m² |
| 2025 | ¥173k/m² | ¥121k/m² | ¥51k/m² |
| 2026 (partial) | ¥174k/m² | ¥126k/m² | ¥52k/m² |
Show data table
| Building age (years) | Condo | House |
|---|---|---|
| 0 | – | ¥286k/m² |
| 1 | – | ¥221k/m² |
| 2 | – | ¥318k/m² |
| 16 | ¥283k/m² | – |
| 20 | – | ¥123k/m² |
| 22 | ¥214k/m² | – |
| 24 | – | ¥127k/m² |
| 25 | – | ¥104k/m² |
| 26 | – | ¥111k/m² |
| 27 | – | ¥143k/m² |
| 28 | – | ¥83k/m² |
| 29 | ¥147k/m² | ¥117k/m² |
| 30 | ¥135k/m² | ¥90k/m² |
| 31 | ¥147k/m² | ¥114k/m² |
| 32 | ¥136k/m² | ¥112k/m² |
| 33 | ¥134k/m² | ¥96k/m² |
| 34 | ¥127k/m² | ¥86k/m² |
| 35 | ¥116k/m² | ¥105k/m² |
| 36 | – | ¥62k/m² |
| 37 | – | ¥60k/m² |
| 38 | – | ¥90k/m² |
| 40 | – | ¥60k/m² |
| 41 | – | ¥69k/m² |
| 43 | – | ¥48k/m² |
| 44 | – | ¥53k/m² |
| 45 | – | ¥36k/m² |
| 46 | – | ¥66k/m² |
| 47 | – | ¥37k/m² |
| 48 | – | ¥56k/m² |
| 49 | – | ¥50k/m² |
| 50 | – | ¥54k/m² |
Each line follows buildings from one construction period over time. 1981 is when Japan's current earthquake-resistance standard (shin-taishin) took effect.
Show data table
| Year | 1981-2000 | 2001-2010 |
|---|---|---|
| 2007 | ¥120k/m² | – |
| 2008 | ¥114k/m² | – |
| 2009 | ¥127k/m² | – |
| 2010 | ¥100k/m² | – |
| 2011 | ¥110k/m² | – |
| 2012 | ¥124k/m² | – |
| 2013 | ¥132k/m² | – |
| 2014 | ¥133k/m² | – |
| 2015 | ¥131k/m² | – |
| 2016 | ¥120k/m² | – |
| 2017 | ¥154k/m² | – |
| 2018 | ¥125k/m² | – |
| 2019 | ¥146k/m² | – |
| 2020 | ¥133k/m² | ¥271k/m² |
| 2021 | ¥139k/m² | – |
| 2022 | ¥134k/m² | – |
| 2023 | ¥150k/m² | – |
| 2024 | ¥125k/m² | – |
| 2025 | ¥125k/m² | – |
Each line follows buildings from one construction period over time. 1981 is when Japan's current earthquake-resistance standard (shin-taishin) took effect.
Show data table
| Year | 1971-1980 | 1981-2000 | 2001-2010 | 2011-2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2007 | ¥110k/m² | ¥142k/m² | – | – |
| 2008 | ¥92k/m² | ¥114k/m² | ¥229k/m² | – |
| 2009 | ¥83k/m² | ¥105k/m² | ¥219k/m² | – |
| 2010 | ¥79k/m² | ¥107k/m² | ¥220k/m² | – |
| 2011 | ¥87k/m² | ¥116k/m² | – | – |
| 2012 | ¥73k/m² | ¥117k/m² | – | ¥232k/m² |
| 2013 | ¥84k/m² | ¥100k/m² | – | – |
| 2014 | ¥75k/m² | ¥110k/m² | – | – |
| 2015 | ¥77k/m² | ¥110k/m² | – | ¥228k/m² |
| 2016 | ¥59k/m² | ¥120k/m² | – | ¥248k/m² |
| 2017 | ¥71k/m² | ¥102k/m² | – | ¥248k/m² |
| 2018 | ¥77k/m² | ¥102k/m² | – | ¥240k/m² |
| 2019 | ¥69k/m² | ¥96k/m² | – | ¥278k/m² |
| 2020 | ¥61k/m² | ¥87k/m² | – | ¥235k/m² |
| 2021 | ¥68k/m² | ¥78k/m² | – | – |
| 2022 | ¥58k/m² | ¥95k/m² | – | – |
| 2023 | ¥45k/m² | ¥104k/m² | – | – |
| 2024 | ¥42k/m² | ¥94k/m² | – | – |
| 2025 | ¥52k/m² | ¥102k/m² | – | – |
| 2026 (partial) | – | ¥84k/m² | – | – |
Prices near train stations in Tokushima City
Sales from 2023–2025, grouped by nearest station.
| Station | Median used condo price | Condo price per m² | Median house price (land + building) | Walk (min) | Sales | Daily passengers (2023) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tokushima (徳島) | ¥16.0M | ¥230k/m² | ¥19.0M | 16 | 239 | 13,004-20% vs 2019 |
| Awa Tomida (阿波富田) | ¥15.0M | ¥200k/m² | ¥11.0M | 9 | 79 | 900-9% vs 2019 |
| Bunkanomori (文化の森) | ¥8.7M | ¥131k/m² | ¥15.5M | 22 | 70 | 248-18% vs 2019 |
| Sako(Tokushima) (佐古) | ¥11.0M | ¥173k/m² | ¥23.5M | 9 | 64 | 1,760+3% vs 2019 |
| Niken ya (二軒屋) | ¥8.4M | ¥198k/m² | ¥16.0M | 13 | 53 | 1,234-3% vs 2019 |
| Kuramoto(Tokushima) (蔵本) | – | – | ¥21.0M | 14 | 48 | 848-6% vs 2019 |
| Akui (鮎喰) | – | – | ¥19.0M | 16 | 46 | 418-1% vs 2019 |
| Ko(Tokushima) (府中(徳島)) | – | – | ¥17.5M | 16 | 46 | 1,096-6% vs 2019 |
| Jizobashi (地蔵橋) | – | – | ¥12.0M | 14 | 31 | 584-9% vs 2019 |
| Yoshinari (吉成) | – | – | ¥14.5M | 26 | 20 | 542-17% vs 2019 |
| Chuden(Tokushima) (中田(徳島)) | – | – | ¥12.0M | 26 | 17 | 826-12% vs 2019 |
Used condo prices by layout in Tokushima City
Sales from 2023–2025.
| Layout | Median used condo price | Typical size | Sales |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3LDK | ¥14.5M | 70 m² | 110 |
| 2LDK | ¥13.5M | 65 m² | 32 |
| 4LDK | ¥15.0M | 85 m² | 15 |
| 1K | ¥3.0M | 20 m² | 10 |
How much does an apartment cost in Tokushima City?
The median used condo (mansion) in Tokushima City sold for ¥11.0M in 2025, about ¥173k/m², based on 76 recorded sales.
How much does a house cost in Tokushima City?
The median house sale, including the land, was ¥18.0M in 2025 across 179 sales.
Are property prices in Tokushima City going up?
Over the five years to 2025, condo prices per m² changed -8.4% and residential land prices changed +6.3%.
About this data
Figures are medians of real transactions reported to Japan's Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism (MLIT) through its quarterly price survey. House prices per m² divide the total price (land and building) by the floor area. Medians based on fewer than 20 sales are not shown. The latest quarters are preliminary and are revised as more survey responses arrive.
Information only, not investment advice.