Tomakomai City Housing Market Report 2026
Data updated 2026-11-11 · Source: MLIT transaction price survey, 2005 Q3–2026 Q2 · Transactions in 2025: 501
In short
- 1Prices are still rising, but more slowly
Growth has cooled to about 0.3% a year, down from 2.3% a year in the previous five years.
- 2Moving with Hokkaido
Per m², houses here are 9% below the Hokkaido average.
- 3Station distance barely matters
Houses 11–15 minutes from a station sell for similar or higher prices than those near one, which usually means buyers here drive or value quiet residential streets.
- 4Sales are thinning out
Transactions are down about 19% on the previous three years.
The answers, compared
What does a home cost?
¥7.8M
median used condo · ¥107k/m²
56% below the Hokkaido median
14 of 15 areas in Hokkaido, highest first
Are prices rising?
+30.3%
over 5 years
Faster than Hokkaido (+22.6%)
11 of 42 areas in Hokkaido, highest first
Can local earners afford it?
2.3× income
median price ÷ average taxable income
Easier than Hokkaido (4.9×)
28 of 48 areas in Hokkaido, highest first
Rent or buy?
15years of rent
median price ÷ a year of median rent
Shorter than Hokkaido (31)
28 of 46 areas in Hokkaido, highest first
Are people moving in?
-3.3%
population, 2020–25
Shrinking slower than Hokkaido (-4.6%)
17 of 51 areas in Hokkaido, highest first
How risky is it?
11%
chance of strong shaking (6-lower+) in 30 years
In line with Hokkaido (11%)
16 of 51 areas in Hokkaido, highest first
Rent in Tomakomai City
The average private rental costs ¥48k a month (2023), +2.3% since 2018. Hokkaido: ¥51k
| Floor area | Typical layout | Average rent / month | Tomakomai CityHokkaido |
|---|---|---|---|
| under 30 m² studio / 1K | studio / 1K | ¥36k vs 2018 -4.4% · Hokkaido: ¥40k | |
| 30–49 m² 1LDK / 2DK | 1LDK / 2DK | ¥46k vs 2018 +3.5% · Hokkaido: ¥49k | |
| 50–69 m² 2LDK / 3DK | 2LDK / 3DK | ¥51k vs 2018 -3.5% · Hokkaido: ¥58k | |
| 70–99 m² 3LDK / family | 3LDK / family | ¥62k vs 2018 +14.9% · Hokkaido: ¥65k | |
| 100–149 m² mostly houses | mostly houses | ¥68k vs 2018 +15.4% · Hokkaido: ¥60k | |
| 150 m² + mostly houses | mostly houses | ¥60k vs 2018 +9.9% · Hokkaido: ¥59k |
- Rent per m²
- ¥1,073
- median, per month · Hokkaido: ¥1,216
- The median used condo (¥7.8M, 80 m²) costs about 10 years of average rent for a similar-sized home (¥62k a month).
- Excludes management fees, repair reserve, property tax and mortgage interest.
Source: Statistics Bureau of Japan, Housing and Land Survey 2023. Privately owned rentals (excluding rent-free homes), monthly rent without management fees. These averages include older homes, so they run below asking rents for newly listed units. 23,420 rented homes.
What the data says
Prices are still rising, but more slowly
Growth has cooled to about 0.3% a year, down from 2.3% a year in the previous five years. This looks more like a maturing market than a turning point, and it gives buyers a bit more room to negotiate.
Moving with Hokkaido
Per m², houses here are 9% below the Hokkaido average. That position has barely changed in ten years, so it moves with the wider market.
Station distance barely matters
Houses 11–15 minutes from a station sell for similar or higher prices than those near one, which usually means buyers here drive or value quiet residential streets.
Sales are thinning out
Transactions are down about 19% on the previous three years. Fewer sales mean less choice and slower resale, so allow more time to sell later.
What a typical purchase costs
Half of all house sales last year were between ¥5.4M and ¥25.0M. Listings outside that range are either unusual properties or worth a closer look.
A shrinking population
The population fell 3.3% between 2020 and 2025 (−4.6% for the wider area). Moves in and out roughly balanced in 2025.
Typical vacancy
16.8% of homes were empty in 2023 (15.6% for the wider area), and 7% were empty without being for rent, for sale or used as second homes. The level of abandoned homes is around the national norm.
Buying vs renting
A median used condo costs about 15.1 years of the area's median rent (¥43k a month), compared with 30.7 years for the wider area. Prices are low relative to rents, which points to higher rental yields, but often also to weaker growth prospects. Rents here cover all rented homes, so treat this as a rough guide.
Lower earthquake risk
The government's seismic model gives a 11% chance of shaking of intensity 6-lower or stronger in the next 30 years (11% for the wider area). This is low by Japanese standards, although no part of Japan is free of earthquake risk.
A typical condo costs 2.3 years of local income
Taxpayers here reported an average taxable income of ¥3.3m in 2023 (¥3.4m for the wider area). That is +19% since 2014. The median resale condo sold for about 2.3 times that, against 4.9 times for the wider area. A higher multiple means prices lean more on buyers from outside the area or on two incomes. Averages are pulled up by a few very high earners, so a typical household earns less than this.
Official land prices are rising fast
On the government's fixed benchmark sites, which are valued the same way every year, residential land prices changed +4% in the year to January 2026 and +16% over five years. They are still 41% below their 1991 bubble-era level. Because these sites don't change, this is the cleanest measure of land value trends.
Significant flood risk
Of the official land-price benchmark sites here, which sit in typical neighbourhoods, 61% are inside the worst-case flood zone, 58% are in a tsunami inundation zone. Most worst-case flood zones are shallow (under 0.5 m) at the edges, so depth matters as much as the share. Check the hazard map for any specific address before buying.
Living in Tomakomai City: people, homes and risks
- Population 2025
- 164,420
- -3.3% since 2020
- Hokkaido: -4.6%
- Net moves in 2025
- -242
- -1.47 per 1,000 residents
- Hokkaido: -1.04
- Vacant homes (2023)
- 16.8%
- 7.0% empty and not for rent or sale
- Hokkaido: 15.6%
- Median rent (2023)
- ¥43k
- per month, all rented homes
- Hokkaido: ¥46k
- Strong earthquake risk
- 10.6%
- chance of shaking of intensity 6-lower or more within 30 years
- Hokkaido: 10.5%
- Average income per taxpayer
- ¥3.3M
- taxable income in 2023
- Hokkaido: ¥3.4M
- Daytime population
- 100
- people here by day per 100 residents (2020 census)
- Foreign residents
- 1.0%
- 1,640 registered residents in 2024
- Hokkaido: 1.3%
- Clinics
- 5.5
- per 10,000 residents; 13 hospitals, 77 dental clinics (2020)
- Hokkaido: 6.9
- Official land price 2026
- ¥19k/m²
- +3.9% in a year · +15.6% in 5 years
- Hokkaido: ¥30k/m²
- Flood exposure
- 61.2%
- of 67 benchmark sites in a worst-case flood zone (0.0% 3 m or deeper)
- Hokkaido: 51.8%
- Tsunami exposure
- 58.2%
- of 67 benchmark sites in a tsunami inundation zone
- Hokkaido: 13.2%
- Landslide exposure
- 1.5%
- of 67 benchmark sites in a landslide warning area
- Hokkaido: 0.6%
Check flood, landslide and tsunami zones for a specific address on the government hazard map ↗
Sources: 2025 Census (preliminary), 2025 Internal Migration Report, 2023 Housing and Land Survey (Statistics Bureau of Japan); J-SHIS seismic hazard model (NIED, 2024); Land Price Publication (MLIT); recorded crime: Tokyo Metropolitan Police Department (Tokyo only); incomes: Ministry of Internal Affairs taxation survey via the Statistics Bureau's municipal indicators; foreign residents: Basic Resident Register; medical facilities and station passengers: MLIT National Land Numerical Information. Earthquake probability is measured at the municipal center.
Example sales in Tomakomai City
Real transactions from the last four quarters, picked near the lower (20th percentile), middle and upper (80th percentile) price points. Locations are shown at district level, as published by MLIT.
Condo
¥3.0M
¥55k/m²
- Nishikimachi
- Tomakomai · 8 min walk
- 3LDK · 55 m²
- Built 1991 (35 yrs) · SRC
¥7.0M
¥78k/m²
- Nisshincho
- Itoi · 15 min walk
- 4LDK · 90 m²
- Built 1989 (37 yrs) · RC
¥12.0M
¥133k/m²
- Nisshincho
- Itoi · 8 min walk
- 4LDK · 90 m²
- Built 1989 (37 yrs) · RC
House
¥3.9M
¥33k/m²
- Kashiwagicho
- Itoi
- Land 185 m² · floor 120 m²
- Built 1988 (38 yrs) · Wood
¥12.0M
¥46k/m²
- Akenoshimmachi
- Tomakomai
- Land 230 m² · floor 260 m²
- Built 1990 (36 yrs) · Wood
¥26.0M
¥200k/m²
- Sankocho
- Tomakomai
- Land 220 m² · floor 130 m²
- Built 1993 (33 yrs) · Wood
Show data table
| Year | Condo | House |
|---|---|---|
| 2008 | – | ¥12.0M |
| 2009 | – | ¥11.0M |
| 2010 | – | ¥12.5M |
| 2011 | – | ¥11.0M |
| 2012 | – | ¥9.6M |
| 2013 | – | ¥11.0M |
| 2014 | – | ¥12.0M |
| 2015 | – | ¥13.0M |
| 2016 | ¥6.5M | ¥12.0M |
| 2017 | – | ¥12.0M |
| 2018 | – | ¥14.0M |
| 2019 | – | ¥13.0M |
| 2020 | ¥6.8M | ¥14.0M |
| 2021 | – | ¥14.0M |
| 2022 | ¥7.9M | ¥13.5M |
| 2023 | – | ¥12.0M |
| 2024 | ¥7.2M | ¥13.0M |
| 2025 | ¥7.8M | ¥13.0M |
| 2026 (partial) | – | ¥13.0M |
Show data table
| Year | Condo | House | Land |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2008 | – | ¥95k/m² | ¥20k/m² |
| 2009 | – | ¥69k/m² | ¥19k/m² |
| 2010 | – | ¥90k/m² | ¥19k/m² |
| 2011 | – | ¥75k/m² | ¥21k/m² |
| 2012 | – | ¥70k/m² | ¥20k/m² |
| 2013 | – | ¥65k/m² | ¥20k/m² |
| 2014 | – | ¥71k/m² | ¥20k/m² |
| 2015 | – | ¥81k/m² | ¥19k/m² |
| 2016 | ¥93k/m² | ¥70k/m² | ¥19k/m² |
| 2017 | – | ¥71k/m² | ¥19k/m² |
| 2018 | – | ¥78k/m² | ¥18k/m² |
| 2019 | – | ¥86k/m² | ¥19k/m² |
| 2020 | ¥82k/m² | ¥86k/m² | ¥19k/m² |
| 2021 | – | ¥89k/m² | ¥17k/m² |
| 2022 | ¥108k/m² | ¥96k/m² | ¥20k/m² |
| 2023 | – | ¥75k/m² | ¥19k/m² |
| 2024 | ¥91k/m² | ¥83k/m² | ¥24k/m² |
| 2025 | ¥107k/m² | ¥85k/m² | ¥23k/m² |
| 2026 (partial) | – | ¥57k/m² | ¥33k/m² |
Show data table
| Building age (years) | House |
|---|---|
| 0 | ¥278k/m² |
| 1 | ¥258k/m² |
| 6 | ¥208k/m² |
| 7 | ¥199k/m² |
| 8 | ¥158k/m² |
| 13 | ¥132k/m² |
| 14 | ¥148k/m² |
| 15 | ¥138k/m² |
| 16 | ¥143k/m² |
| 17 | ¥152k/m² |
| 18 | ¥133k/m² |
| 19 | ¥89k/m² |
| 21 | ¥103k/m² |
| 22 | ¥100k/m² |
| 23 | ¥100k/m² |
| 24 | ¥119k/m² |
| 25 | ¥74k/m² |
| 26 | ¥67k/m² |
| 27 | ¥74k/m² |
| 28 | ¥64k/m² |
| 29 | ¥70k/m² |
| 30 | ¥58k/m² |
| 31 | ¥72k/m² |
| 32 | ¥76k/m² |
| 33 | ¥73k/m² |
| 34 | ¥57k/m² |
| 35 | ¥66k/m² |
| 36 | ¥63k/m² |
| 37 | ¥70k/m² |
| 38 | ¥59k/m² |
| 39 | ¥57k/m² |
| 40 | ¥33k/m² |
| 41 | ¥42k/m² |
| 42 | ¥46k/m² |
| 43 | ¥43k/m² |
| 44 | ¥45k/m² |
| 45 | ¥43k/m² |
| 46 | ¥42k/m² |
| 47 | ¥30k/m² |
| 48 | ¥38k/m² |
| 49 | ¥45k/m² |
| 50 | ¥37k/m² |
Each line follows buildings from one construction period over time. 1981 is when Japan's current earthquake-resistance standard (shin-taishin) took effect.
Show data table
| Year | 1971-1980 | 1981-2000 | 2001-2010 | 2011-2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2008 | ¥53k/m² | ¥85k/m² | ¥190k/m² | – |
| 2009 | ¥50k/m² | ¥62k/m² | ¥183k/m² | – |
| 2010 | ¥56k/m² | ¥75k/m² | ¥181k/m² | – |
| 2011 | ¥41k/m² | ¥68k/m² | – | ¥192k/m² |
| 2012 | ¥40k/m² | ¥64k/m² | – | ¥215k/m² |
| 2013 | ¥42k/m² | ¥55k/m² | – | ¥209k/m² |
| 2014 | ¥34k/m² | ¥65k/m² | ¥117k/m² | ¥216k/m² |
| 2015 | ¥44k/m² | ¥62k/m² | ¥120k/m² | ¥221k/m² |
| 2016 | ¥41k/m² | ¥56k/m² | ¥104k/m² | ¥218k/m² |
| 2017 | ¥35k/m² | ¥61k/m² | ¥87k/m² | ¥228k/m² |
| 2018 | ¥30k/m² | ¥69k/m² | ¥81k/m² | ¥230k/m² |
| 2019 | ¥29k/m² | ¥59k/m² | ¥107k/m² | ¥232k/m² |
| 2020 | ¥31k/m² | ¥62k/m² | ¥105k/m² | ¥227k/m² |
| 2021 | ¥35k/m² | ¥66k/m² | ¥116k/m² | ¥243k/m² |
| 2022 | ¥44k/m² | ¥67k/m² | ¥124k/m² | ¥199k/m² |
| 2023 | ¥37k/m² | ¥63k/m² | ¥120k/m² | – |
| 2024 | ¥42k/m² | ¥74k/m² | ¥125k/m² | – |
| 2025 | ¥41k/m² | ¥70k/m² | ¥147k/m² | ¥200k/m² |
| 2026 (partial) | – | ¥57k/m² | – | – |
Prices near train stations in Tomakomai City
Sales from 2023–2025, grouped by nearest station.
| Station | Median used condo price | Condo price per m² | Median house price (land + building) | Walk (min) | Sales | Daily passengers (2023) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tomakomai (苫小牧) | ¥8.5M | ¥116k/m² | ¥16.0M | 16 | 312 | 6,536-6% vs 2019 |
| Itoi (糸井) | – | – | ¥6.3M | 15 | 218 | – |
| Numanohata (沼ノ端) | – | – | ¥26.5M | 18 | 186 | – |
| Aoba (青葉) | ¥3.6M | ¥48k/m² | ¥7.0M | 13 | 168 | – |
| Nishikioka (錦岡) | – | – | ¥7.5M | 16 | 99 | – |
| Yufutsu (勇払) | – | – | ¥8.0M | 8 | 10 | – |
Used condo prices by layout in Tomakomai City
Sales from 2023–2025.
| Layout | Median used condo price | Typical size | Sales |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3LDK | ¥10.0M | 75 m² | 29 |
| 4LDK | ¥7.3M | 90 m² | 14 |
How much does an apartment cost in Tomakomai City?
The median used condo (mansion) in Tomakomai City sold for ¥7.8M in 2025, about ¥107k/m², based on 30 recorded sales.
How much does a house cost in Tomakomai City?
The median house sale, including the land, was ¥13.0M in 2025 across 317 sales.
Are property prices in Tomakomai City going up?
Over the five years to 2025, condo prices per m² changed +30.3% and residential land prices changed +21.1%.
About this data
Figures are medians of real transactions reported to Japan's Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism (MLIT) through its quarterly price survey. House prices per m² divide the total price (land and building) by the floor area. Medians based on fewer than 20 sales are not shown. The latest quarters are preliminary and are revised as more survey responses arrive.
Information only, not investment advice.